Those dudes in Vegas are rich for a reason, the deck is stacked...
Stacked in the realm of reality.
Picking Miami to have 7.5 wins says most betting people don't believe Miami can duplicate or even reach last year's record. The odds are set so that Vegas wins. If most people think the line is wrong, it will move up or down.
Miami had a negative point differential last season, it is exceedingly rare for a NFL team to have a winning record when they score less than their opponents. Miami had a 1-5 record against teams with a winning record last season.
Winning 10 games is nice, but it also leads to a 2nd place division schedule, meaning Miami plays more games against winning teams this year.
These are the reasons Vegas has Miami picked at 7.5 wins. We as Miami fans cannot be so pragmatic in our expectations. We would rather chug from the glass half full...
Outside the confines of fandom, reality beckons…
71 points were given away to the Ravens, NE and Pitt in losing games at the end of the season, 103 points against Miami - to 32 points for Miami. The Dolphins won 8 of 11 other games decided by 7 points or less. The trend is, Miami lost big to good teams and squeaked out wins against bad teams. With that in mind, it’s easy to see where the 7.5 Vegas number comes from.
So the reality in Miami is – more-better blues...
Miami will play better teams and last season was an anomaly. The Miami defense has to get better to compete with better teams, I believe the season hinges on the defense. Obviously, our first 3 picks in the draft were on defense. That happening for the first time in team history shows how much the coaches agree with this assessment.
That gives me hope, because we’re now dealing in reality…
Many times in the past, I saw things that I thought were apparent and the team didn't seem to be on the same page. Clearly there are no illusions going on in Miami. I honestly think Adam Gase told his team and management, "we have a long way to go." The only way to get there is through hard work, seeing the truth and not believing in illusions.
Let’s live in reality people!
The truth can be liberating, the team is smiling and encouraged because the challenge is clear. Clear understanding of weaknesses, clear understanding of what they know works, clear understanding of what needs to improve. This is how to get better, live in reality...
The illusions of the past are gone, Adam Gase lives in reality…
