Josh Rosen: The Historical Miami Dolphin Steal

Why Josh Rosen
Written by: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

All the reasons he can be the starting QB in 2020 and win a Super Bowl

The second of a two part series –

This analysis will not spend much time with Arizona Cardinals because frankly, what I saw was a really poor example of an NFL franchise. Winning three games was a masterpiece playing for that dysfunctional team. The only good decision Cardinal GM Steve Keim made, was realizing quickly how badly he had botched the decision to hire former head coach Steve Wilks. If you want to see a highlight, the only video to watch is the victory over the Green Bay Packers that got Mike McCarthy fired.

Let’s start with the obvious; check out this video of his game against Texas A&M in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H_BQAimYfA.  If this is not enough, you aren’t paying attention.

His footwork in eluding the rush, his ability to throw while being hit, the pump fakes and leading defenders away with his eyes to allow another receiver to get open, are the very definition of an NFL QB. Now, granted the TXA&M defense gave up 30.7 points per game and finished 87^th of 109 schools in that category, but a 34 point 3^rd quarter deficit is the 2^nd greatest comeback in the history of the NCAA.

I believe he can be a high percentage passer in the NFL. In his final season at UCLA, without much talent around him, he completed 62.5% of his passes and that included 63% against the blitz and 31 dropped passes. He did all this while getting sacked 26 times in 11 games and taking many more hits. Add in the drops and he is at 69.4% for his last season at UCLA.

While draft pundits looking for flaws will say he does not have the strongest arm, he can make all the throws, but just occasionally underthrows the deep ball. His mechanics are as good as anyone I have watched coming out of school. Take a look at some other film and you see the same things from the Texas A&M game. He climbs the pocket exceptionally well and though he is not fast, he has the footwork that you might see from a Marino or a Brady while in the pocket.

Another good piece of film to watch is Josh versus Washington in 2017 playing against two DB’s, two LB’s and a DT who were drafted into the NFL; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRUJpey8Yhc  He gets hit and harassed throughout this game. In the first seven plays shown, he get hits on five of them, two sacks, a roughing call, and a scramble but sticks in there. Washington has an exceptional defense and is 6-1 and ranked when they play. At the 2:08 mark check out the footwork in the pocket that results in a throw away, but is followed by a TD pass where he threads the needle.

Another game I watched was this against USC in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55ZIFvl6L84  He demonstrates his toughness again as they come after him throughout the game. I especially like the two deep passes he throws in the first 2:15 of this video, especially the second one where he drops a dime, so much for not having a strong enough arm. In this video you will see him lead players perfectly to catch the ball in stride, you will see him as a willing blocker on a reverse and also see some of those drops we referenced earlier. Now we see plenty of tipped balls, one of those fumbles and an interception on this film too, so there are some good reference points for evaluation, including plenty examples of his toughness.

I realize I am asking for you to invest some time watching these video breakdowns, but they are very telling and this is the kind of detail we all need to make an evaluation of his skills as a quarterback.

Playing QB, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, requires a very particular set of skills. I believe that Rosen has those skills in spades. He throws with anticipation and demonstrates very good spatial awareness. He sees players and knows where they will be and where others around them will be when the ball is traveling at a particular velocity to arrive at the point he has chosen.

As you will recall from my pre-draft article, this is one of the key defining traits of an elite NFL QB. But if you read my draft musings you also know that the first two traits mentioned were leadership and competiveness. These are the traits everyone questions about Rosen.

I looked at these three particular pieces of film for a reason. I was looking for leadership and competitiveness. A 34 point comeback takes leadership, playing a tough defense that has your players overmatched and playing your clearly superior rival that is 9-2, requires competitiveness and the toughness to never backed down in the face of adversity.

None of us were in the locker room, nor on the practice field where we can tell how the players around him treat him and react to him. I thought his departure from AZ showed some growth in this regard, particularly his video message. But also no one spoke up, even anonymously to say anything negative about him as a teammate or a leader.

Let me add this from a personal experience perspective. My career has been spent leading sales teams, coaching and training future leaders in our company. I believe leadership is not something you have at birth. It can be taught and we do it all the time. Mitch Trubisky spent a bunch of time after his first year reading and learning about how to be a better leader. Let’s all hope that Josh is doing the same thing because the evidence supports that he has been trying.

Another thing I will mention about Josh that can’t be overlooked; he is smart as hell and he is a really good athlete, from a strong athletic background. He may not be a Manning, but his bloodlines and his exploits of youth (high school state champion, top ranked tennis player) serve notice that he can and will understand how to perform in the moment.

Leadership is the only thing we still want to see and that high school state championship gives us a little hope, but he needs to prove this every day. How he competes with Fitzpatrick, how the team arrives at that final decision after the competition. These will be things to watch for, especially what is not said or what the body language of his teammates tells you after it all shakes out. Does he win the locker room?

All of this points to someone who damn sure could be a future leader of an NFL franchise. What stands out and what else do you see that tells YOU he can be a Super Bowl winning QB in the league?

Why Josh Rosen Will Fail in Miami

Quadzilla (Joe Tarell) analyzes a simple question:

Why Josh Rosen will not be the starting QB in 2020 and beyond:

In the first of a two part series – we are going to see how disciplined our readers are… We want you to hold off on defending Josh in your comments and wait for part two where we will give the flip side of this argument; and yes that means you Kenny! Tell what else you don’t like about him and your opinion on why these factors will hinder his ability to lead the Dolphins.

He has been known to be difficult to coach, his college coach said he would take Darnold over Rosen. He was perceived as arrogant and spoiled rich kid, inquisitive to the point where he appears to think he is smarter than the coach, strong political opinions that might not sit well with teammates. He is known to ask why whenever a new play concept or offensive scheme is introduced.

In reality, Joshua Ballinger Lippincott Rosen might have gotten the “entitled” tag from birth. His great-great-great grandfather is Joseph Wharton, the namesake of the prestigious Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy League school. His father was a champion ice skater. His mother was captain of the Princeton lacrosse team. Josh was a nationally ranked youth tennis player. He grew up as a child of privilege in a house in L.A. valued at $8 million.

He has shown some immaturity including when he and some friends rearranged a neighbor's lawn ornaments in sexually suggestive positions. Since arriving at UCLA he has set off a social media firestorm over presidential politics, deleted at least one provocative post and been forced to apologize to the school, including after putting a blow-up hot tub in his dorm room and posting pictures on social media. And then there was his quote that in college “football and school don’t go together” and the more he tried to explain it the worse it sounded.

Not the strongest arm, evaluators before last year’s draft were very complimentary of his touch and anticipation but felt he would have trouble fitting the ball into tight windows and making the difficult throws in the NFL, though is somewhat of questionable review to some.

Build is weak and skinny, he has had injury problems in high school and college including a shoulder and multiple concussions, ran 4.92 40 and has shown poor mobility in the past, registering 53 sacks in his college career in 30 games started and 45 in 13 games with Arizona. He completed 42% of his passes when forced to move in college, though he did run for 138 yards at 6 yards a carry last year in AZ.

Started at UCLA as a freshman and they entered the season ranked 13th in the AP Poll, but lost three of their last four and finished unranked at 8-5, including losses in the final two games to USC and Nebraska who were also unranked.

UCLA finished 4-8 in 2016, 3-3 in the games Josh started before injuring his shoulder.  He had surgery to repair damage and missed the second half of the season, returning in time to participate partially in spring practice.

UCLA finished 6-5 in the 2017 games he started, Josh sat out the bowl game, after another concussion, but it was never certain if he was still feeling the effects or was protecting his draft stock. The school said it was a 100% medical decision, but Rosen was quoted as saying, “I think players are just starting to realize they have a lot of power and they don't need to be exploited when it's to their detriment". It's just every single situation is unique, and I don't think you can lump them all together." Then later said "I want to do everything I can to play in this game, I love these guys. I would give anything to get another game after this."

His college record ends up as 17-13 in games he started and his coach, Jim Mora was fired before the final game of his final season.  He left after 3 years as a true Junior after enrolling early and was 3 classes shy of a degree in Economics.

Rosen’s career statistics in college were mediocre with 61% completions, 59 TD’s to 26 Interceptions and a College Passer Rating of 139.9 with 20 fumbles.  To put that into perspective, the career leader all time is Kyler Murray at 181.3 and Rosen would not be in the top 45 of players in last year’s ranking where both Murray and Tua Tagovailoa had 199+ ratings for the season.

His record last year at AZ was 3-10 with 11 TD’s, 14 interceptions, 55.2% completions and 2278 yards for a passer rating of 66.7, which was ranked 41st of passers with at least 100 attempts. He also had 10 fumbles.  It was widely acknowledged that the AZ offensive line was weak and David Johnson ran for only 940 yards despite playing all 16 games, but this was a historically bad offense last year when they ranked 32nd in passing yards, 32nd in average per attempt, 32nd in points, and 32nd in total yards.

All of this points to someone who is not the future leader of an NFL franchise.  What stands out and what else do you see that might prevent him from succeeding in the league?

A New Era Begins for the Miami Dolphins

When the Miami Dolphins traded Ryan Tannehill, the next era of the franchise officially began. Stuck in neutral, the Dolphins could never rise into the league's upper echelon, yet were never horrible enough to consider drafting Tannehill's successor. An NFL quarterback is either the savior or the bane for the entire organization surrounding him.

The list of casualties is extensive, Philbin, Campbell, Gase, Ireland, Hickey, Tannenbaum, throw in all the coordinators and position coaches and it's easy to see how one player can affect the lives of every person associated with a professional football team. The incredible difficulty and importance of the quarterback position places the rest of the organization squarely on the shoulders of a single player.

Many pundits do not believe the fate of so many resides in success at one position, but the "Fired Football Coaches Association" may disagree. Obviously, teams with great QBs are in the mix every year and teams without sometimes get there, but everything must fall perfectly into place. It is also the reason fans and writers spend so much time and energy on the quarterback position.

Brian Flores and Chris Grier begin their journey through the minefield with singular purpose; their jobs depend on finding a quarterback. Coming from the house of the GOAT, Flores knows what it looks like. He has an advantage Adam Gase was never given, he doesn't have to attempt whispering mind tricks to coax a Lamborghini out of a Chevy. Chevy's aren't bad, a Corvette is a Chevy, but even a Corvette will never be mistaken for a Lamborghini. It's when a team invests $50 million dollars in that Chevy that it damn well better become a Lamborghini or the "Fired Football Coaches Association" awaits.

It all means, Flores and Grier either find that player, or eventually join the esteemed FFCA. The Dolphins purged the entire team, divesting older highly paid players in salary cap maneuvers. Ever wonder what kind of text messages those guys sent Tannehill when his inability to raise the team brought the hatchet down? Maybe Miko Grimes wasn't so wrong after all...

There is no time for the I-told-you-so folks to pat their own backs, its time to move on. This leads to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen in what should be a single season tryout, not a seven-year project. There is no doubting what the Dolphins have in Ryan Fitzpatrick, he's a placeholder until the real deal presents itself.

Grier knows the FFCA quite well, he watched the demise of all the names above first hand. He knows implicitly that his future resides on the throwing arm of the next Miami Dolphins franchise QB. The trade for Josh Rosen could go either way, but that depends solely on play of Josh Rosen, not the hope of Josh Rosen. Grier placed Miami and Rosen in a great position to be successful. Grier doesn't stand to lose much if Rosen busts and Rosen is no longer burdened with being the 10th pick of the draft.

Miami can only lose by playing the Tannehill game and thinking a QB that has never been a winner can somehow find the Midas touch. History for Rosen is not necessarily great, his UCLA teams never achieved greatness, but that is not a huge concern. UCLA last won the NCAA football championship in 1954. It is not as if the Bruin's are annually churning out national powerhouses. Rosen is in the NFL because he has an NFL caliber arm and has exceptional intelligence to play the position.

What Miami needs to figure out in short order is whether Rosen can win when surrounded by NFL caliber talent. The Arizona Cardinals had a fair offensive line in training camp. Then Center A.Q. Shipley tore an ACL before the season, right guard Justin Pugh tore an ACL in November, right tackle Andre Smith was released in November for non-football reasons, left guard Mike Iupati injured an MCL on Dec. 3, and then left tackle D.J. Humphries re-injured a knee on Dec. 5 and they all missed the remainder of the season.

Rosen will now get a second chance with a Dolphin team that may not be much better than those Cardinals. It will not be easy to judge whether the kid can actually play with a decent team around him. Rosen must display the illusive "IT" factor even if his team is simply not good enough to beat quality NFL opponents.

In the event that Rosen plays the Tannehill opossum and shows just enough to tease, the Dolphins should open the 2020 NFL draft with a QB. This is what the 2019 Miami Dolphins season comes down to, the Rosen audition. It doesn't mean he has to set the NFL afire, it means he has to show beyond any doubt that he has what it takes to be a great NFL QB.

In the coming days, Quadzilla will use his exceptional skills to give Dolphinshout his exclusive Josh Rosen evaluation. Please tune-in and learn the good, the bad and the ugly about Josh Rosen.