The team has lost 5 of the past 6 games. During that 6 game stretch, the Dolphins have forced 1 turnover. Miami forced 11 turnovers between Week 2 and Week 9, but the only turnover since was the Reshad Jones interception against New England in week 12. The 27th league ranking in turnover differential is pathetic and has more to do with Miami losing than Ryan Tannehill's rookie QB play.
This stat from the Palm Beach Post is amazing, the Dolphins have forced 17 fumbles this year, but recovered only three of them. Offensively, the Dolphins have fumbled 21 times and lost 11. That means overall, they have recovered only 14 of 38 fumbles (36.8 percent). Forget about Tannehill's 12 interceptions, the Dolphins have missed 24 opportunities to maintain possession or to gain an extra possession.
One look at the teams leading in turnover differential margin and it's easy to see how important this statistic is. The Colts are an anomaly, but when they get bounced from the playoffs, turnovers will be their downfall.
This has been an on-going issue in Miami for many seasons. The players on this defense never seem to be in the right place to make a play, whether it is dropping INTs or not recovering fumbles.
In his junior season prior to declaring for the NFL draft, Sean Smith had 5 INTs. In 4 seasons with the Dolphins, Smith has 3... Karlos Dansby has 15 forced fumbles, 9 recoveries and 11 INTs in his career, this year... O forced fumbles, O fumble recoveries, O INTs. These numbers are representative of the entire defense. It's not meant to be all on Smith or Dansby, this defense is incapable of forcing turnovers.
It is a major issue in Miami. If Ryan Tannehill had as many second chances as Tom Brady and NE's +24 differential the Dolphins could easily be heading to the playoffs instead of being home for the holidays.
Joe Philbin and Kevin Coyle are well aware of these numbers. It is well known at any level of football that takeaways equal victory and giveaways equal defeat. Before all the experts go off on the lack of speed or line play or even QB play, perhaps the problem in Miami is a little more basic.
Christmas is a nice time for gifts, but in the NFL, gifts will lead to losses and coaching jobs will soon follow. Even though turnover differential should land squarely on the players, it is often viewed as a coaching issue. Kevin Coyle won't last long as a defensive coordinator and Joe Philbin will follow him out the door.
If there was one single statistic that could have a significant impact on the win/loss record, turnover differential is the one. Fix it Joe!
Logging you in...
13kvFINS · 643 weeks ago
ABSOLUTELY LOVE THAT SUGGESTION for more than only the sake of THill !!!!!!!
SHOOT 24 x 3 = 72 additional Offensive points while only an 8th of those 24 equates to a couple extra W's !!
GREAT-STUFFF Patrick, GOFINS!!
thorny · 643 weeks ago
I do not want to get to far ahead of things however. I caution everyone to tread lightly. The fan base wants to win and so do I but this is a new regime wit a rookie qb and a very young learning team. Just five months ago NFL players were bashing this team stating nobody would play for Miami in addition to empty seats during Sundays really hurt the players and the team. Look we now have a rookie qb and a new coach, my vote is to support them and give them a chance this time instead of running them out of town like in previous years. It's time to support this team and I am NOT SAYIN ANYONE IS NOT SUPPORTING THIS TEAM. I am just saying be positive better times are ahead you can see it. This team is getting better
JPBelgianPhin · 643 weeks ago
Also, back to the turnover ratio, two thoughs : first, forcing fumbles and not recovering them means often "bad luck" (idem for fumbling but not recovering)
Second : you really see who are the talented teams in the chart. Speaking of AFC only, look at Indy (Pat said that) but also at Pittsburgh : they have a good record (play-offs worth) thus overcoming their bad ratio. Meanwhile, Cleveland really sucks! At +8 they have the same record we have!
Tony Nicoletti · 643 weeks ago
I'd like to know how the fine art of forcing and recovering fumbles can be taught? Is it a matter of finesse to strip or knock a ball loose or brute force? Seems New England has mastered the skill of the giveaway/takeaway. I don't think they are just getting lucky, either. They are definitely no better than us defensively, but they are opportunistic. Now interceptions are a different matter. Catch the blasted ball. Practice catching it if you have to!
This reminds me of the New Orleans Saints that won the Super Bowl a few years back. High scoring team. They had to be because they could not stop anyone. They would depend on scoring a lot of points and using up the clock to win.
But they also had a uncanny knack for causing and recovering turnovers. And when they got you behind, where you were forced to be one dimensional, (and easier to defend) that seemed to be when they were at their best at coming up with the ball. The Saints were an average team for the most part, on defensive. That explosive offense and a ball hawking defense was a good formula for them that year.
Some of the teams that have the best T/O ratios are not particularly good on defense. And they were not overly protective with the ball. But being on the positive side of the T/O Ratio with a decent offense can reap havoc on opposing teams. There are only a dozen teams with a plus 6 ratio or higher, too.
Are we playing too conservative, going for the sure tackle (fundamentals) rather than trying to jar or strip the ball loose? Do we need to take more chances and be more aggressive? Especially when teams are threatening to score on us. Does this team swarm to the ball enough to maximize the chances we will come up with it? Is it just a lull we are in, right now? It would sure help our defense to create some turnovers and get off the field to rest for the next series.
And it's not like we are not capable, either. The 11 takeaways over an 8 game stretch is a decent figure. We are one of the better team at pressuring and sacking the QB. Recovering 3 of 17 forced fumbles means we can create the turnovers in sufficient quantities. We need to practice securing loose balls. A good defense should be able to come up with a better percentage than that. We would have a great defense if it weren't for this lone statistic.
I think a well timed take away is better than a goal line stand. It is demoralizing for a team to march down the field, only to come up empty handed with no points to show for the effort. Even if you don't score with the turnover. It stalls their drive, can be frustrating for them and maybe even make them a little worried about protecting the ball. (We ought to know, we have been in that situation enough times this year).
We are not the worst team in the giveaway department, either. But we are third from the bottom as far as takeaways are concerned, so I agree Patrick. It's not Tannehill's 12 interceptions. Almost half the teams in the charts have given up more INT's than us. And we have had this problem before in previous years. (Not during the year we had Chad Pennington at the helm). Interceptions became problematical with him during that first playoff game against the Ravens. (I believe)?
We do need to secure the ball to lower the number of fumbles though. No wonder Philbin made an issue of that with Bush.
Forget the calls that didn't go our way and caused us to lose possession of the ball. Yes, we have had a few that were erroneous and costs us opportunities. But you have to factor that into the game. It is how the proverbial football bounces, so to speak.
Now if we can learn how that ball bounces and scoop a few more of them up off the field and out of the air, we might just have a better record and maybe a playoff berth.
In your infinite wisdom, Patrick. How do you improve on the turnover category? Got any ideas?
Patrick · 643 weeks ago
Patrick · 643 weeks ago
I agree with you fully on the officiating, I have been complaining about it for years. I see holding on nearly every single play but the officials pick and chose when they call it. The same thing with interference. These are both judgement calls and the damn judge seems to have been paid by the other team. I hate to complain about the officials, as I have said before being a Miami Hurricane fan, the team has to go in knowing they have two opponents, the other team and the officials. We just have to beat them both.
Thorny · 643 weeks ago
If you go back to the Shula era, this team was consistently trying to get players to support Marino via free agency and trades. Some big names came through Miami during this time, some players were fantastic but some were not. But here is my point, I always felt that if they would have waited one season to gel as a team the following season would be great and if you remember after a big blockbuster bust Miami would get rid of the newly acquired players too soon and so the team(s) never had a chance to come together.
I just do not want see this happen again. I would much rather build through the draft and develop the talent then get an ego type over rated player who knows every thing. I am surprised t the wr situation currently on this team. I really thought Armstrong had a chance or even Gaffney but then again what do I know lol.
By the way this post ,Patrick, was a good one
BuckeyeFinfan · 643 weeks ago
Beach Potato · 643 weeks ago
Riverdog · 643 weeks ago
I mean come on 17 forced fumbles and only 3 recoveries ? 1 interception in the past 6 games ? That isn't bad luck, the reason for that is the lack of talent, speed and smarts to get a recovery or an interception. I know for a fact Philbin is looking for the reason for this ineptness, he said so just a day or so ago.
As for the penalties. The Dolphins are seldom going to get any breaks from the officials until they show they can win games on a regular basis. The NFL like the NBA wants to see the marque teams do well. Our team is not one of those marque names in the NFL any longer. We are an after thought, until that changes, we will continue to see the calls fall the way are at this time.
As in real life the only thing you get when you are down is a kick in the ribs. You seldom catch a break from anyone, and so it goes for the Miami Dolphins. Any time I see a questionable call by referee, I think to myself " and so it goes ".
The Dolphins have it with in their power to change this. Start Winning !!! and things will change.
BuckeyeFinfan · 643 weeks ago
Patrick · 643 weeks ago
Are the Dolphins missing on creating their own luck by not maintaining aggression?
BuckeyeFinfan · 643 weeks ago
Riverdog · 643 weeks ago
BuckeyeFinfan · 643 weeks ago
Patrick · 643 weeks ago
Riverdog · 643 weeks ago
How much different would we look if we had a WR that would score 12 TDs. Or a RB with 1500 yards. Players like that make a team better and we don't have any of them.
thorny · 643 weeks ago
River I am hoping soon we finally get a good product from Miami Dolphins. That goes for everybody. But I think the fat needs to be cut from this team and bring in good young guys.
Polly Ann Murray · 643 weeks ago
Change it around some, Have reversal of Miami's backfield, using 2011, 2nd round pick Daniel Thomas and former UM standout Lamar Miller as the runners on first and second down so Bush can line up as a receiver more often
I cannot agree more. This JP does the same thing every week so each team knows what the next play is going to be. I expected some inventive plays from him and he is the same as TS. We need to be more aggressive on the D we can do it if given the calls to do so. Again coaching!!!!!!!!!!!!!! First thing JP did was get rid of Marshall and yes I know most of you were glad for that move, but I was not even he stayed one year to get RT some balance I know we would have been a much better team than we are. I understand making the team work for their positions but we need some big play makers to make the team work and we do not have any at this time except Reggie and I am sure we will give him up next year
Riverdog · 643 weeks ago
As for Marshall. He stamped his own ticket out of Miami with his statement after the Pro Bowl last year when he threw the Dolphins QBs under the bus.
IMO if the Dolphins want to improve, they can't do that keeping the players that are at the root of the team losing. So I am always on the side of the team if they decide to trade a good player away if they think it will improve the team in the long run. With one more win our record will tell us we are as good as we were last year. Even after we sent a few players off to other teams. So I believe we are actually a better over all team this year, even if we have very few play makers on this team.
Hang in there Polly.
13kvFINS · 643 weeks ago
""Binns has an above-average combination of size and speed. Doesn't lose speed at top of stem or in and out of his breaks. Capable of locating soft spots in zone coverage. Displays excellent hands. Plucks and snatches away from his frame and can make the tough catches; over-the-shoulder, poorly thrown balls, etc. Tough. """
JUST PLEASE DON'T GIVE HIM # 19 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JPBelgianPhin · 643 weeks ago
He is a lot "Hartline alike"...
13kvFINS · 643 weeks ago
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.ph...
JPbelgianPhin · 643 weeks ago
BuckeyeFinfan · 643 weeks ago
JPBelgianPhin · 643 weeks ago
With Hartline is still in, two rookies WR are OK.
In other words, if the Phins are about to spend n°1 or 2 money on a WR, they want him to be a true n°1 or 2, not a n°3 (Hartline)
13kvFINS · 643 weeks ago