Josh Rosen: Historical Miami Dolphin Steal

Why Josh Rosen
Written by: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

All the reasons he can be the starting QB in 2020 and win a Super Bowl


The second of a two part series –

This analysis will not spend much time with Arizona Cardinals because frankly, what I saw was a really poor example of an NFL franchise. Winning three games was a masterpiece playing for that dysfunctional team. The only good decision Cardinal GM Steve Keim made, was realizing quickly how badly he had botched the decision to hire former head coach Steve Wilks. If you want to see a highlight, the only video to watch is the victory over the Green Bay Packers that got Mike McCarthy fired.

Let’s start with the obvious; check out this video of his game against Texas A&M in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H_BQAimYfA.  If this is not enough, you aren’t paying attention.

His footwork in eluding the rush, his ability to throw while being hit, the pump fakes and leading defenders away with his eyes to allow another receiver to get open, are the very definition of an NFL QB. Now, granted the TXA&M defense gave up 30.7 points per game and finished 87th of 109 schools in that category, but a 34 point 3rd quarter deficit is the 2nd greatest comeback in the history of the NCAA.

I believe he can be a high percentage passer in the NFL. In his final season at UCLA, without much talent around him, he completed 62.5% of his passes and that included 63% against the blitz and 31 dropped passes. He did all this while getting sacked 26 times in 11 games and taking many more hits. Add in the drops and he is at 69.4% for his last season at UCLA.

While draft pundits looking for flaws will say he does not have the strongest arm, he can make all the throws, but just occasionally underthrows the deep ball. His mechanics are as good as anyone I have watched coming out of school. Take a look at some other film and you see the same things from the Texas A&M game. He climbs the pocket exceptionally well and though he is not fast, he has the footwork that you might see from a Marino or a Brady while in the pocket.

Another good piece of film to watch is Josh versus Washington in 2017 playing against two DB’s, two LB’s and a DT who were drafted into the NFL; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRUJpey8Yhc  He gets hit and harassed throughout this game. In the first seven plays shown, he get hits on five of them, two sacks, a roughing call, and a scramble but sticks in there. Washington has an exceptional defense and is 6-1 and ranked when they play. At the 2:08 mark check out the footwork in the pocket that results in a throw away, but is followed by a TD pass where he threads the needle.

Another game I watched was this against USC in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55ZIFvl6L84  He demonstrates his toughness again as they come after him throughout the game. I especially like the two deep passes he throws in the first 2:15 of this video, especially the second one where he drops a dime, so much for not having a strong enough arm. In this video you will see him lead players perfectly to catch the ball in stride, you will see him as a willing blocker on a reverse and also see some of those drops we referenced earlier. Now we see plenty of tipped balls, one of those fumbles and an interception on this film too, so there are some good reference points for evaluation, including plenty examples of his toughness.

I realize I am asking for you to invest some time watching these video breakdowns, but they are very telling and this is the kind of detail we all need to make an evaluation of his skills as a quarterback.

Playing QB, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, requires a very particular set of skills. I believe that Rosen has those skills in spades. He throws with anticipation and demonstrates very good spatial awareness. He sees players and knows where they will be and where others around them will be when the ball is traveling at a particular velocity to arrive at the point he has chosen.

As you will recall from my pre-draft article, this is one of the key defining traits of an elite NFL QB. But if you read my draft musings you also know that the first two traits mentioned were leadership and competiveness. These are the traits everyone questions about Rosen.

I looked at these three particular pieces of film for a reason. I was looking for leadership and competitiveness. A 34 point comeback takes leadership, playing a tough defense that has your players overmatched and playing your clearly superior rival that is 9-2, requires competitiveness and the toughness to never backed down in the face of adversity.

None of us were in the locker room, nor on the practice field where we can tell how the players around him treat him and react to him. I thought his departure from AZ showed some growth in this regard, particularly his video message. But also no one spoke up, even anonymously to say anything negative about him as a teammate or a leader.

Let me add this from a personal experience perspective. My career has been spent leading sales teams, coaching and training future leaders in our company. I believe leadership is not something you have at birth. It can be taught and we do it all the time. Mitch Trubisky spent a bunch of time after his first year reading and learning about how to be a better leader. Let’s all hope that Josh is doing the same thing because the evidence supports that he has been trying.

Another thing I will mention about Josh that can’t be overlooked; he is smart as hell and he is a really good athlete, from a strong athletic background. He may not be a Manning, but his bloodlines and his exploits of youth (high school state champion, top ranked tennis player) serve notice that he can and will understand how to perform in the moment.

Leadership is the only thing we still want to see and that high school state championship gives us a little hope, but he needs to prove this every day. How he competes with Fitzpatrick, how the team arrives at that final decision after the competition. These will be things to watch for, especially what is not said or what the body language of his teammates tells you after it all shakes out. Does he win the locker room?

All of this points to someone who damn sure could be a future leader of an NFL franchise. What stands out and what else do you see that tells YOU he can be a Super Bowl winning QB in the league?

Josh Rosen: The Historical Miami Dolphin Steal

Why Josh Rosen
Written by: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

All the reasons he can be the starting QB in 2020 and win a Super Bowl

The second of a two part series –

This analysis will not spend much time with Arizona Cardinals because frankly, what I saw was a really poor example of an NFL franchise. Winning three games was a masterpiece playing for that dysfunctional team. The only good decision Cardinal GM Steve Keim made, was realizing quickly how badly he had botched the decision to hire former head coach Steve Wilks. If you want to see a highlight, the only video to watch is the victory over the Green Bay Packers that got Mike McCarthy fired.

Let’s start with the obvious; check out this video of his game against Texas A&M in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H_BQAimYfA.  If this is not enough, you aren’t paying attention.

His footwork in eluding the rush, his ability to throw while being hit, the pump fakes and leading defenders away with his eyes to allow another receiver to get open, are the very definition of an NFL QB. Now, granted the TXA&M defense gave up 30.7 points per game and finished 87^th of 109 schools in that category, but a 34 point 3^rd quarter deficit is the 2^nd greatest comeback in the history of the NCAA.

I believe he can be a high percentage passer in the NFL. In his final season at UCLA, without much talent around him, he completed 62.5% of his passes and that included 63% against the blitz and 31 dropped passes. He did all this while getting sacked 26 times in 11 games and taking many more hits. Add in the drops and he is at 69.4% for his last season at UCLA.

While draft pundits looking for flaws will say he does not have the strongest arm, he can make all the throws, but just occasionally underthrows the deep ball. His mechanics are as good as anyone I have watched coming out of school. Take a look at some other film and you see the same things from the Texas A&M game. He climbs the pocket exceptionally well and though he is not fast, he has the footwork that you might see from a Marino or a Brady while in the pocket.

Another good piece of film to watch is Josh versus Washington in 2017 playing against two DB’s, two LB’s and a DT who were drafted into the NFL; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRUJpey8Yhc  He gets hit and harassed throughout this game. In the first seven plays shown, he get hits on five of them, two sacks, a roughing call, and a scramble but sticks in there. Washington has an exceptional defense and is 6-1 and ranked when they play. At the 2:08 mark check out the footwork in the pocket that results in a throw away, but is followed by a TD pass where he threads the needle.

Another game I watched was this against USC in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55ZIFvl6L84  He demonstrates his toughness again as they come after him throughout the game. I especially like the two deep passes he throws in the first 2:15 of this video, especially the second one where he drops a dime, so much for not having a strong enough arm. In this video you will see him lead players perfectly to catch the ball in stride, you will see him as a willing blocker on a reverse and also see some of those drops we referenced earlier. Now we see plenty of tipped balls, one of those fumbles and an interception on this film too, so there are some good reference points for evaluation, including plenty examples of his toughness.

I realize I am asking for you to invest some time watching these video breakdowns, but they are very telling and this is the kind of detail we all need to make an evaluation of his skills as a quarterback.

Playing QB, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, requires a very particular set of skills. I believe that Rosen has those skills in spades. He throws with anticipation and demonstrates very good spatial awareness. He sees players and knows where they will be and where others around them will be when the ball is traveling at a particular velocity to arrive at the point he has chosen.

As you will recall from my pre-draft article, this is one of the key defining traits of an elite NFL QB. But if you read my draft musings you also know that the first two traits mentioned were leadership and competiveness. These are the traits everyone questions about Rosen.

I looked at these three particular pieces of film for a reason. I was looking for leadership and competitiveness. A 34 point comeback takes leadership, playing a tough defense that has your players overmatched and playing your clearly superior rival that is 9-2, requires competitiveness and the toughness to never backed down in the face of adversity.

None of us were in the locker room, nor on the practice field where we can tell how the players around him treat him and react to him. I thought his departure from AZ showed some growth in this regard, particularly his video message. But also no one spoke up, even anonymously to say anything negative about him as a teammate or a leader.

Let me add this from a personal experience perspective. My career has been spent leading sales teams, coaching and training future leaders in our company. I believe leadership is not something you have at birth. It can be taught and we do it all the time. Mitch Trubisky spent a bunch of time after his first year reading and learning about how to be a better leader. Let’s all hope that Josh is doing the same thing because the evidence supports that he has been trying.

Another thing I will mention about Josh that can’t be overlooked; he is smart as hell and he is a really good athlete, from a strong athletic background. He may not be a Manning, but his bloodlines and his exploits of youth (high school state champion, top ranked tennis player) serve notice that he can and will understand how to perform in the moment.

Leadership is the only thing we still want to see and that high school state championship gives us a little hope, but he needs to prove this every day. How he competes with Fitzpatrick, how the team arrives at that final decision after the competition. These will be things to watch for, especially what is not said or what the body language of his teammates tells you after it all shakes out. Does he win the locker room?

All of this points to someone who damn sure could be a future leader of an NFL franchise. What stands out and what else do you see that tells YOU he can be a Super Bowl winning QB in the league?

Why Josh Rosen Will Fail in Miami

Quadzilla (Joe Tarell) analyzes a simple question:

Why Josh Rosen will not be the starting QB in 2020 and beyond:

In the first of a two part series – we are going to see how disciplined our readers are… We want you to hold off on defending Josh in your comments and wait for part two where we will give the flip side of this argument; and yes that means you Kenny! Tell what else you don’t like about him and your opinion on why these factors will hinder his ability to lead the Dolphins.

He has been known to be difficult to coach, his college coach said he would take Darnold over Rosen. He was perceived as arrogant and spoiled rich kid, inquisitive to the point where he appears to think he is smarter than the coach, strong political opinions that might not sit well with teammates. He is known to ask why whenever a new play concept or offensive scheme is introduced.

In reality, Joshua Ballinger Lippincott Rosen might have gotten the “entitled” tag from birth. His great-great-great grandfather is Joseph Wharton, the namesake of the prestigious Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy League school. His father was a champion ice skater. His mother was captain of the Princeton lacrosse team. Josh was a nationally ranked youth tennis player. He grew up as a child of privilege in a house in L.A. valued at $8 million.

He has shown some immaturity including when he and some friends rearranged a neighbor's lawn ornaments in sexually suggestive positions. Since arriving at UCLA he has set off a social media firestorm over presidential politics, deleted at least one provocative post and been forced to apologize to the school, including after putting a blow-up hot tub in his dorm room and posting pictures on social media. And then there was his quote that in college “football and school don’t go together” and the more he tried to explain it the worse it sounded.

Not the strongest arm, evaluators before last year’s draft were very complimentary of his touch and anticipation but felt he would have trouble fitting the ball into tight windows and making the difficult throws in the NFL, though is somewhat of questionable review to some.

Build is weak and skinny, he has had injury problems in high school and college including a shoulder and multiple concussions, ran 4.92 40 and has shown poor mobility in the past, registering 53 sacks in his college career in 30 games started and 45 in 13 games with Arizona. He completed 42% of his passes when forced to move in college, though he did run for 138 yards at 6 yards a carry last year in AZ.

Started at UCLA as a freshman and they entered the season ranked 13th in the AP Poll, but lost three of their last four and finished unranked at 8-5, including losses in the final two games to USC and Nebraska who were also unranked.

UCLA finished 4-8 in 2016, 3-3 in the games Josh started before injuring his shoulder.  He had surgery to repair damage and missed the second half of the season, returning in time to participate partially in spring practice.

UCLA finished 6-5 in the 2017 games he started, Josh sat out the bowl game, after another concussion, but it was never certain if he was still feeling the effects or was protecting his draft stock. The school said it was a 100% medical decision, but Rosen was quoted as saying, “I think players are just starting to realize they have a lot of power and they don't need to be exploited when it's to their detriment". It's just every single situation is unique, and I don't think you can lump them all together." Then later said "I want to do everything I can to play in this game, I love these guys. I would give anything to get another game after this."

His college record ends up as 17-13 in games he started and his coach, Jim Mora was fired before the final game of his final season.  He left after 3 years as a true Junior after enrolling early and was 3 classes shy of a degree in Economics.

Rosen’s career statistics in college were mediocre with 61% completions, 59 TD’s to 26 Interceptions and a College Passer Rating of 139.9 with 20 fumbles.  To put that into perspective, the career leader all time is Kyler Murray at 181.3 and Rosen would not be in the top 45 of players in last year’s ranking where both Murray and Tua Tagovailoa had 199+ ratings for the season.

His record last year at AZ was 3-10 with 11 TD’s, 14 interceptions, 55.2% completions and 2278 yards for a passer rating of 66.7, which was ranked 41st of passers with at least 100 attempts. He also had 10 fumbles.  It was widely acknowledged that the AZ offensive line was weak and David Johnson ran for only 940 yards despite playing all 16 games, but this was a historically bad offense last year when they ranked 32nd in passing yards, 32nd in average per attempt, 32nd in points, and 32nd in total yards.

All of this points to someone who is not the future leader of an NFL franchise.  What stands out and what else do you see that might prevent him from succeeding in the league?

Miami Dolphin 2019 Draft Musings

2019 Draft Musings
BY: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

The 2019 NFL Draft beginning on April 25th in Nashville is going to be a notable draft for a number of reasons.  The main theme for this class is that it will be remembered three to five years from now as very weak in overall talent.  First let me explain that and then I will dig into some of the players and how it will likely play out.

We all know that the QB class of 2020 is supposed to be a very strong group, just as in 2017 everyone pointed to the 2018 class.  The fact is this draft is not that strong overall or at the QB.  The unanimous top player in this draft is Nick Bosa.  While many expect him to be a good NFL prospect, the injury history and the measurables do not equate to an elite prospect.  He was well-trained, having NFL level players for a father, brother and uncle, but he will not out-technique everyone in the NFL the way he did in college.  The good news is that there is awesome depth in the D-line prospects, just not elite talent.  It appears to be the same at OT.  The two places where there appears to be elite talent are at ILB and TE, which are not the glamour positions. I just think this is a draft where we may not see a single HOF candidate when it is all said and done.

The QB’s in this class are led by Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray.   Both have strengths that can’t be denied, but both are one year starters with some major concerns as well.  I list Haskins first because his weakness is mobility and that can be overcome easier than size, which is Murray’s weakness.  I would rather go watch Kyler Murray play, but I would rather not draft either of them and risk my job on it.  After that, the talent drops off very quickly as I do not believe that Drew Lock is an NFL caliber starting QB, though I believe that Daniel Jones has the most upside of all of them considering he played at Duke and not a single player from that roster is going to be drafted.  The Dolphins should wait until next year for their QB in my opinion unless Haskins falls to them in the first or Jones in the second.

Drafting a QB is more art than science and most people get it wrong.  The fact is that three of the best QB’s in the history of the NFL are Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas.  They were drafted in the 6th, 3rd and 9th rounds respectively.  Even Dan Marino, though technically a first rounder, was the sixth QB taken in 1983.  The key defining trait of great QB’s is leadership.  John Elway is the picture of the athlete you want playing QB, but took nearly 15 years to win a Super Bowl because it took time to become a leader and we are seeing that now in his role as a GM.  After leadership comes competitiveness.  And the next is the ability to deliver a football amid the chaos of an NFL pocket accurately and on time while seeing 22 moving parts and knowing how the movements will culminate in a completed pass… better known as spatial awareness.  Now tell me how the hell you measure those three things at the Combine or a freaking pro day?

Kyler Murray sat behind Baker Mayfield, but his three high school state championships and his one year at Oklahoma tell me all I need to know about his competiveness and leadership. I also think he has great spatial awareness and accuracy.  If he were over 6 feet tall we would have an Andrew Luck grade on him.  Draft him if you get the chance.  Haskins on the other hand, sat behind TJ Barrett (he’s an NFL star now isn’t he) and played on arguably one of the top three most talented teams in the country and still could not make the playoffs.  If you watch his tape closely, he has three NFL caliber WR’s and he waits for them to get clearly open before delivering the ball.  He got away with that because of the talent level at OSU but it caught up to him at times.  I still think he has a chance to be good in the NFL, but not elite.

I won’t spend much time on RB and WR because I do not believe there is a single player worthy of a first round choice in this draft.  I would almost never pick a RB in the first round and with WR’s it is almost as bad.  My theory on RB’s goes back to pee wee football and the best player is always at RB so by the time they get draft-eligible they are a dime-a-dozen and they only last three to four years anyway.  The WR position is similar these days with the proliferation of the spread offenses at the lower levels of football.  You add in the Diva Factor and the belief that this position is totally relying on the other 10 guys to have any chance for success and it is bad recipe.  Josh Jacobs is the best RB prospect and he did not even start in college.  Marquis Brown came to college weighing 144 pounds and now is a hefty 166, while DK Metcalf looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.  Really?  These are the top two prospects?  I will wait until rounds two through four and reduce the Diva Factor, thank you very much.

The TE class is intriguing again this year.  TE’s usually take a year to develop in the NFL so there is still some hope for Gisecki and Smythe.  I bring those two names up for a couple reasons; one, because this is a Dolphins blog and I am still pretty high on both of them, but also because they are two separate types of TE.  One is primarily a blocker and the other is primarily a receiver. The feeling is that T.J. Hockenson can be both so he is expected to go early, Noah Fant and Irv Smith, Jr. are better receivers than blockers but Smith is probably closer to being a combo than Fant.  All three could go in round one as the TE position has become more of a focal point lately.  Teams play follow the leader and the Patriots have always been the leaders in utilizing the TE, but now with Philadelphia winning a Super Bowl and the Chiefs having Kelce as a primary threat, they are becoming all the rage.  We will see 15 or more TE’s get drafted this year after 14 went each of the last two years.

The OT class is not very strong this year.  If there is top LT prospect he is usually going in the top five and we may not see one come off the board until after 10 and even some of the other Tackles expected to get first round attention are potentially moving to OG.  Jawaan Taylor seems to be the top  OL prospect followed by Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams, Cody Ford and a couple of interior guys like Garrett Bradbury and Chris Lindstrom or Erik McCoy.  Again, some good depth, but not exactly rated as elite.

The defensive line is the strength of this draft and  is usually split into two groups these days.  The edge rushers, who could be OLB’s in a 3-4 or DE’s in a 4-3, but they are primarily edge defenders who rush the passer and set the edge in the run game.  The second group is the interior players, which may be a 3-4 DE, a DT or NT.  The edge group is pretty strong and deep, but not elite in my opinion.  Bosa, Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary, Clelin Ferrell, Brian Burns and potentially one or two others could all go in round one.  When it comes to edge defenders I always count productivity over measurable, that is why Sweat, Allen and Bosa should all go well ahead of Gary.  The leading sacker of all time in the NCAA is in this draft, Jaylon Ferguson, who went to Louisiana Tech – I want him before I want Rashan Gary.  A wise person once wrote, ‘whatever they are before they get paid, they will only become more like that after they get paid.’

In the interior defensive line we again have a strong and deep group led by Quinnen Williams, who may be the best player in the draft.  Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, Jeffrey Simmons (who is recovering from a torn ACL), Dexter Lawrence and Jerry Tillery could all go in the first round.  There are also enough good players here that talent can be found into rounds three and four.  Again, though, other than Williams, I do not see any elite players.  You can pick them apart for a variety a flaws; Oliver had some attitude issues and is on the small side, Lawrence has minimal production, Simmons has the ACL and some character flags, so buyer beware.  The Dolphins first pick could come from these two groups, my guess is Wilkins.

At the LB position there a couple of players that really turned heads at the combine.  Normally, I am opposed to the workout warrior, but when the production is there and with Devin White and Devin Bush it is definitely on film, and they run 4.41 at the combine, hello first round.  Bush will go later because he is only 5’11”, but these two guys are three down linebackers with a ton of tackles and plays made from sideline to sideline at two big time schools.  Plug and play.  Unfortunately there is not much depth here.

Defensive back is another area where there is no truly elite player in this draft.  Many have the best CB as Greedy Williams from LSU but I wouldn’t draft him before the third round for one simple reason; he won’t tackle.  Watch his tape and you will see he is a pile inspector.  Tackling is about desire, not talent or skill, it does not get better in the NFL.  Deandre Baker and Byron Murphy are much better candidates and likely first rounders, but there really is not much to get excited about.  Some safeties like Jonathan Abram or Taylor Rapp may go in round one but they are mostly graded as 2nd rounders.

So what is the consensus? Miami at 13 should be able to get a really good OL or DL candidate.  I don’t expect an all-pro to be sitting there unless you want to draft Jeffrey Simmons and give him a redshirt year.  He has top 5 talent, but tore his ACL in February preparing for the draft so there is little chance he contributes this year.  If the Dolphins are truly rebuilding for 2020 and beyond this pick make sense.  Otherwise pick Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams or Cody Ford for the OL.  I also like Garret Bradbury as a guard or center, but this is a little early.  Maybe a trade back is in order.

Then in the second round Miami should just flip the side of the ball.  If you go Simmons in round one, go OL at 48, where Kaleb McGary, Titus Howard or one of the highly ranked interior players should be available.  If you go OL in round one, then Jaylon Ferguson, Jerry Tillery, L.J. Collier or Chase Winovich should be available.  The point is stick to the strength of this draft and go get some big uglies.

Miami should avoid skill positions until at least round three unless a DB falls in their lap in round two.  If Dwayne Haskins somehow slips to 13, take him.  I have a good feeling about him, but all of this talk of him slipping is a just smoke screen.  Remember, it is lying season.  Three or four QB’s will likely come off the board before the Dolphins pick at 13.  And this means with T.J. Hockenson also likely off the board, the Fins will get one of the top 9-10 linemen in the draft at 13.  Get a big ugly that sacks the QB or protects the QB or trade out of the pick.  And don’t be surprised if they trade out multiple times next weekend and take 2020 choices in return.

The Miami Dolphins Leap into the Future

Miami Dolphin fans watch the ugly business of shedding contracts hoping it ends in a sustainable winning team. The Dolphins have dominated free agent signing many times in a twenty stretch of mediocrity without fielding a playoff caliber roster. Finally recognizing that building teams through free agency is not a winning formula in the NFL, Miami embarks on an interesting journey through the minefields of the NFL draft.

"Building through the draft," has a wonderful sound to it, but selecting which human is best prepared for the rigors of NFL football, is an inexact science at the very least, a guessing game at best. Agents have become teachers, processing players through a myriad of classes designed to provide answers to questions in preparation to present the perfect football player. How can a person be courteous and kind, yet mean as rabid pit-bull.

It's an interesting dichotomy...

Meeting face-to-face with prospects about to become the team's future is essential when failure is fatal. Attempts to trip up scripted responses have led to interesting questions. Jeff Ireland's callus inquiries about Dez Bryant's mother, or whether a player prefers men, or how many cars did he steal, have made headlines for all the wrong reasons. In reality, these meetings have little bearing on whether a prospect will make a great professional. During the pageantry, they are actors auditioning, not players playing.

Miami Dolphin fans can relate to Dion Jordan as a great example of all that can go wrong. When it seems too good to be true, it probably is. The Dolphins were picking 12th in 2013 and the Raiders were willing to accept Miami's 12th and 42nd pick to give Miami the 3rd overall pick. One look at these names is all you need to know the Dolphins should have traded down, instead of trading up.

1 Eric Fisher OT
2 Luke Joeckel OT
3 Dion Jordan DE
4 Lane Johnson OT
5 Ezekiel Ansah DE
6 Barkevious Mingo OLB
7 Jonathan Cooper OG
8 avon Austin WR
9 Dee Milliner CB
10 Chance Warmack OG
11 D.J. Fluker OT
12 D.J. Hayden CB
13 Sheldon Richardson DE
14 Star Lotulelei DT
15 Kenny Vaccaro SS
16 EJ Manuel QB
17 Jarvis Jones OLB
18 Eric Reid FS
19 Justin Pugh OT
20 Kyle Long OG
21 Tyler Eifert TE
22 Desmond Trufant CB
23 Sharrif Floyd DT
24 Bjoern Werner OLB
25 Xavier Rhodes CB
26 Datone Jones DE
27 DeAndre Hopkins WR
28 Sylvester Williams DT
29 Cordarrelle Patterson WR
30 Alec Ogletree OLB
31 Travis Frederick C
32 Matt Elam FS

The Dolphins committed the Cardinal Sin of selecting a player based on his measurements and combine numbers. They overlooked the player's obvious troubles, exacerbated by bringing that player within reach of South Beach. Jordan cost Miami picks 12 and 42. Imagine if they had traded down for a couple of 2nds, here are few names selected later in 2013.

35 Zach Ertz TE
37 Giovani Bernard RB
46 Kiko Alonso MLB
48 Le'Veon Bell RB
57 D.J. Swearinger SS
61 Eddie Lacy RB
63 Travis Kelce TE
69 Tyrann Mathieu FS
71 T.J. McDonald SS
76 Keenan Allen WR
85 Jordan Reed TE

Miami actually ended up paying two of these players premium free agent contracts. The problem in today's selection process is placing too much weight on profile numbers and not enough on what's on film. Jeff Ireland's glaring example with Dion Jordan should serve as the poster child for every want-to-be general manager.

It is obvious, Ireland was unprepared for the 3rd pick in that draft. Looking at the first round players, Oakland knew every player in the 3rd slot could be had with the 12th or indeed, the 42nd pick. There were some good offensive linemen at the top of that draft, but Ireland was under pressure to make something happen. He had submarined his coach in a power play, leaving his owner hanging out to dry. Ireland needed to take a chance. In the end, it cost him his job and very nearly his career.

Oakland ended up with D.J. Hayden and Menelik Watson. Watson never turned into much, but Hayden has been a starter in the league since that draft. What rings true is, there are very few can't miss prospects. The only position worth taking risks on is the quarterback. The irony is, there was only one QB taken in the 1st round of that draft, EJ Manuel. In fact, there was only one QB taken in the second round, Geno Smith. Not one true starting QB came from the 2013 draft.

If the only reason to trade up is for a QB, Jeff Ireland did it in the poorest NFL QB draft class in the last twenty years. Ireland believing Ryan Tannehill was a franchise quarterback in 2012, created a disaster from which, the Miami Dolphins have yet to recover.

The reason for this comparison is only two possible franchise QBs are available in this draft, Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray. Neither of these QBs is an absolute sure thing which means, the teams at the top of this draft will be looking to opt-out.

Miami must not, for any reason become a player in these reindeer games. The second and third rounds of this draft overflow with talent and this is the prefect year to forget the splash and trade down.

Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater have both opted for contracts as backup quarterbacks rather than join the Miami Dolphins as a one-year starter.

The term "placeholder quarterback" has become vogue when discussing the position in Miami. Miami is looking to stock draft picks in the coming years and the most painful way to do that is by losing starters through free agency and not replacing them. This creates opportunities for compensatory draft picks the following year.

If Taylor or Bridgewater was a starting free agent QB in Miami (and indeed, they would) then it would displace the loss of Wake or James. Those two players will start on other teams and by not replacing them, Miami earns compensatory draft picks.

Bridgewater or his agent may have an over inflated idea of his value, but if a QB is coming to a team as the starter, than he should be paid as a starter. Why get killed and not get paid? Miami is not willing to pay a placeholder quarterback and hence, they have no incentive to come to Miami.

The press will malign the Dolphins as a place no quarterback is willing to play. The truth is, this is the pain Miami must endure to erase the errors reaching all the way back to Jeff Ireland.

It's interesting how none of this is ever tied to a man named Bill Parcells, but it was Parcells who began the downhill run. Parcells hired Ireland and Sparano (RIP) without understanding, once Jeff Ireland smelled the scent of power, the strength would overwhelm him.

The Dolphins swapped their 6th round pick for a 7th round pick in the 2019 draft and obtained a 4th round pick in the 2020 draft in trade for QB Ryan Tannehill.

The Dolphins understand, 2019 is not going to be a pretty season so why add players now. It means a QB position manned with marginal talent that will not impair the ability to obtain compensatory draft picks. It also assures the team will not be very good.

It's going to be a tough ride for Miami fans... Rigorously adhering to a plan is painful but there is some relief. In the past, Miami was under the illusion of being constantly one player away from a playoff team. They did not seem to understand the difference between a minor playoff team and a Super Bowl caliber team. The new regime clearly understands this difference and it starts at quarterback.

The quest to find a great quarterback in the draft, begins now...

Buckle your seatbelts, it's going to be an interesting ride Miami Dolphin fans!

Should the Miami Dolphins Draft Kyler Murray

In openly claiming to rebuild, the Miami Dolphins have effectively shoved Ryan Tannehill out the door. The quarterback drafted by Jeff Ireland and retained by a multitude of fired regimes has been the defining Dolphin mistake. A repeat mistake will leave the team wallowing in mediocrity for another decade.

In the simplest terms, quarterback play dictates NFL success. Debating the merits of each individual player has made the NFL draft a unique American pastime. The shows, the mocks, the experts, many of whom have never stepped foot on an NFL field will pollute the airways with opinions. All culminating in the moment commissioner Roger Goodell steps to the podium and announces the name holding the key to Miami's future.

Mocking the Miami Dolphins, Mel Kiper has Kyler Murray slotted for pick thirteen. The diminutive Heisman Trophy winner is the most compelling player in the 2019 draft, but is he the future of the Dolphins?

The moment falls on Chris Grier, his chance for genius or his moment of folly. Fate is a cruel twist of timing when a year ago five first round QBs left the stage. In 2019, only three seem worthy and only one is beyond debate. As one of the first picks, Dwayne Haskins would cost Miami so much future draft stock, the pick is unrealistic.

The decision for Grier and his posse dangles on the shoulders of a 5'9" young man with undeniable skill, trapped in a tiny body. Those who played little league football remember Kyler Murray. The little guy with so much speed and shiftiness, no one could tackle him. His team won, it won everywhere he played.

Murray is a three-time state high school football champion. Murray took the Oklahoma Sooners to the college football final four. Murray won the Heisman Trophy. Murray was the ninth pick in the major league baseball draft. Murray is a winner, and this fact is beyond debate.

Unfortunately, time catches up to all of us, faster for some and slower for others. Murray will not grow any taller and adding weight would be detrimental to his game. Time has caught up to Murray. Unlike a gangly Tom Brady stumbling along the 40-yard dash still growing into his body, Murray is done growing.

Any illusion of getting more than what is present with Murray is a mistake. Leading to the ultimate question, can Kyler Murray be an NFL franchise QB? No one can answer this question definitively. Mel Kiper is gambling the Miami Dolphins are willing to take that chance. Beyond a doubt, some team will make Murray a rich man, but is it worth the gamble?

Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are the obvious reference points, both have won a Super Bowl, both are taller than Murray. Brees is one of the all time greats, a future hall-of-famer, but how does that relate to Murray? Brees and Wilson were both good college QBs, neither was a Heisman contender, niether was a first round draft pick, both were still growing when they entered the NFL.

Murray signed a $4.75 million dollar baseball contract apparently without understanding his NFL prospects. When someone close to him realized he would likely become an NFL first round pick, he dropped the baseball money and proclaimed his love of football.

Football, that would guarantee much more than $4.75 million dollars. No one can blame him for this, but in his mind, he knew baseball was probably the sport his body would most likely allow him to play. Money is what changed that perspective.

As a true freshman in 2015 at Texas A&M, Murray appeared in games as a backup with several starts late in the season. On December 24, 2015, Murray announced that he was transferring to the University of Oklahoma. He sat out the 2016 season per NCAA transfer rules. In 2017, Murray was a backup to Baker Mayfield. Murray only started one season of college football.

In a disturbing interview with Dan Patrick, Murray was completely indecisive. He was reluctant to answer even the simplest question. The interview got to the point where Patrick stopped asking Murray questions and began to ask Murray's father to answer what Murray thought. It had eerie reminiscings of Todd Marinovich...

Football and football alone must be the basis of any Miami Dolphin decision. List the positives, next to the negatives and see if one clearly outweighs the other.

Positives:
Athleticism
Arm strength
Winning history

Negatives:
Size
Very little college experience
No Pro style offense experience
Pampered
Questionable decision-making
Money-first mentality
Indecisive

The college game is not a great indicator of whether a player will make it in the NFL. College offenses are dissimilar to most pro-sets and the Miami Dolphins can determine whether Murray is a fit by self-examination.

By essentially stealing the New England coaching staff, the Dolphins will be running a version of the Erhardt-Perkins offense. It is a multi-formational pro-set that uses two sided pattern calls for passing routes.

The offense is effective when the quarterback has an in-depth understanding and is able to make quick decisions, on the patterns, formations and blocking schemes. Kyler Murray does not appear to be a fit for the Erhardt-Perkins offense.

Murray may have a great career in the NFL. The team that selects Murray must make a concerted effort to tailor their offense and players to the style of play that will make him effective. Unfortunately, Murray's size is a real concern in the NFL. The injury history of small mobile QBs (RG3) is very much against him.

By examining the facts...

The Miami Dolphins should pass on Kyler Murray.

Miami Dolphins Must Step Back to Leap Forward

From a swamp the Miami Dolphins came and to a swamp they have returned. While South Florida has expanded wildly over the past 20 years, the Dolphins have regressed. Interestingly enough, Chris Grier has seen it all in his 19 years with the team. Somehow the longest tenured Dolphin, who rode the ebbing tide, will now reside at the top of the heap.

And it is a heap… 31st in offense, 29th in defense, scored the 26th most points on offense and gave up the 27th most on defense. The Dolphins were outgained by 1619 yards and outscored by 114 points. Miami’s 31 sacks were fourth fewest in the league, while allowing 52, tied for fifth most. The quarterback was ranked dead last by Pro Football Focus.

It is amazing this team was able to scrape out 7 wins while being so statistically horrendous. The axe fell on Adam Gase and Mike Tannenbaum, but Gase realistically had little to work with as a fool’s game was playing out behind the scenes. The win now philosophy was doomed without a true star at quarterback and a penchant for paying older free agents that plagued the team with injuries.

The Miami Dolphins are a complete mess and any coach with winning aspirations is certain to choke on this franchise. Not only is Miami once again in a middling draft position, they have very little cap space to work with and enough dead money to fill Davy Jones’ locker.

The Dolphins would have to cut, Ryan Tannehill, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, Ja’Wuan James, Andre Branch and rescind the fifth-year option for receiver DeVante Parker, in order to amass $60 million in cap space. Even with these drastic cuts the Dolphins will carry close to $30 million in dead money from Tannehill and Ndomukong Suh’s terrible contracts.

Not a good look for a coach to step into, no money, no quarterback and no early draft picks to acquire one. While division rivals are loaded with cap space and have either the GOAT at QB, or a shiny new QB heading into his second year. The win now philosophy that only ever produced mediocrity has left the Miami Dolphins in dire straights that may take years to overcome.

Wherever Adam Gase is at, he’s probably grinning from ear to ear, having a Miami Miracle of his own being pushed off the sinking ship just before the final plunge. Sometimes a team must sink before it can swim, and Miami is destined to be underwater for the next two or three years trying to amend the mistakes Mike Tannenbaum inflicted.

The only players likely to see the renaissance are Larimy Tunsil, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Xavien Howard. That means Miami should trade players like Reshad Jones, TJ MacDonald, Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, Kiko Alonzo. Even Kenyan Drake should be included because by the time Miami is relevant, he will be an older running back. The cuts and trades will leave the cupboard bare, but only then can Miami find a way out of the perpetual purgatory of mediocrity.

The six prominent choices making a splash in the press are, Chiefs offensive coordinator - Eric Bieniemy. Bears defensive coordinator - Vic Fangio, Patriots linebacker’s coach - Brian Flores, Steelers’ offensive line coach - Mike Munchak, Cowboys’ passing game coordinator/DBs - Kris Richard, and the Dolphins own special team’s coordinator and assistant head coach - Darren Rizzi.

Of the above names, only Mike Munchak has prior head coaching experience in the NFL and in three seasons with the Tennessee Titans, he never produced a winning team. The problem with this coaching search is, no candidate with any hopes of winning for three years should take this job.

The Miami Dolphins have been gutted and more cuts are needed to add draft picks and cap space. The Dolphins need to find a true stud at quarterback before any coach is going to win with any consistency. The truth is, the Miami Dolphins are at least a three-year project away from winning anything. Coaches who lose for three seasons, are fired like the last five in Miami.

There is one candidate in this bunch that will approach this job without any illusions. Darren Rizzi knows exactly what he is getting into. Rizzi knows what must happen, knows the expectations of Chris Grier and Stephen Ross and knows the players currently on the roster. Rizzi can quickly look at these players and decide which will be peaking in three years and which will have passed their prime.

Rizzi is not the shiny new coordinator of the moment looking to blaze into head coaching with last-to-first aspirations. It’s not to say the next Dolphin coach shouldn’t have expectations, but the shiny coordinators are much like Adam Gase, they want win now and it’s just not going to happen in Miami.

The Dolphins need a coach willing to purge and rebuild. They need a coach who knows this roster. When it’s open season for trading and cutting, there is no worry about being the jerk who sent some player to Cleveland. This coach gets a clean slate without the expectation of winning now. It’s the perfect place for a first time coach with the patience to rebuild.

Miami also needs a homer coach that really likes South Florida, one who understands the pitfalls of places like South Beach. That knowledge is critical in the player selection process because no matter how talented, troubled players always find the dark side of Miami. Rizzi knows this, he knows this town. Newcomers may have heard tales, but when presented with super talent, they make the critical mistake of believing they can change and control people.

For these reasons, Darren Rizzi is the best candidate for the Miami Dolphins. He must tell the ownership he cannot be judged by his record for at least three seasons. After his third season, then the clock can begin ticking because make no mistake about it, the Miami Dolphins will take at least three years to overcome the win-now philosophy that has gutted this team.

Sorry Dolphin fans, sometimes it takes a step backwards to make a leap forward…

Tannehill Decision Will Define Gase's Future

The Miami Dolphins spiral into another dismal off-season with some amazingly offensive stats…

2 of 9 on third down against Jacksonville…

57.7 completion percentage…
 
83 yards gained on the first drive and 100 on the final nine possessions...

Tannehill’s sixth time in 10 games failing to throw for 200 yards...

Averaging 183.2 passing yards per game...

Failed to generate 200 yards of offense in three of the past four games...

Miami’s offense is 25th in points this year, was 25th in points last year, and was 24th in points in 2016...

Former first-round pick DeVante Parker has three catches for 31 yards in his past three games and 122 receiving yards in the past six games.

“It’s terrible,” coach Adam Gase said. “I mean, the offense was awful. It was brutal to watch, to be a part of.  I think today was a rough day for {Ryan}. I wish he would have played a little better. I wish he would have made a few more decisions that were different. I think there’s been games that he has – that he’s played really well – and there’s been some games where we haven’t played well.”

“I think every position has its faults,” Tannehill said about the inept offense. “Start with me and just go right down the line. I think when you have that, it all stacks up and you’re not moving the ball. We have to be cleaner, every position, starting with me and that will give us our best chance, obviously, to put the ball in the end zone.”

Why take a 36-year-old Frank Gore and make him the fixture of your offense when it takes carries away from more explosive backs like Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage? The reason is because there is no trust in the passing game and the only true option left is a power running game.

The stats above define why there is no trust in the passing game and it’s time the Miami Dolphins face the simple truth, Ryan Tannehill is not a Super Bowl quarterback…

There seems to be a misunderstanding in Miami as to why there are football games. There is a single goal in professional football…

Win the Super Bowl.

Certainly, no team can win the big game every year, but the big picture focus seems to have eluded the Miami Dolphins. Frank Gore is a great locker room guy, but he’s not going to take this team to that Super Bowl in the sky. Sitting future players like Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage and using Gore makes little sense in the big picture.

Sitting them because the quarterback cannot consistently show up for football games and then praising that quarterback opens all kinds of questions…

Winning is an interesting conundrum when taken in the context of time. A momentary win can actually hinder long-term success. There is a simple way to remember this, “short-term gains no long-term returns.”

Those short gains by Gore can keep the ball moving slowly down the field in hopes of some success, but in the end the big prize is just an illusion. That prize goes to players like Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, who is averaging 324.5 yards passing in his second NFL season.

Seven years later, any thought of creating a great person out of one that never was, is an illusion. This needs to be addressed unless Stephen Ross is also delusional. If the coach has no ability to project long-term success and is simply mired in short-term day-to-day management, than the expectation for the future should be the results of the present.

Simply stated, doing the same thing over and over again will produce the same results…

The expectation cannot be to remain with Ryan Tannehill, whether it’s perceived as his fault or not. Calling out injuries, or penalties, poor game planning, not playing complimentary football, are all excuses that will not change the result. The only constant on this team has been Ryan Tannehill, not Joe Philbin, Jeff Ireland, Mike Sherman, Bill Lazor, Mike Tannenbaum, Chris Grier or Adam Gase…

Ryan Tannehill...

Tannehill is a really good person and that is what keeps the illusion alive, but make no mistake, it is an illusion.

Think - big-picture - Super Bowl picture.
 
The Miami Dolphins must somehow find this understanding. Adam Gase has the potential to be a great football coach, but great coaches have one thing in common, they can sense and see great quarterbacks. They can take that quarterback, make him better and together they can achieve the ultimate football success…
 
Winning the Super Bowl.

This is what Stephen Ross should be looking for, a coach who can sense a great quarterback and make him better. Adam Gase? Maybe, but if he’s locked in on Ryan Tannehill, than he’s caught in the illusion. He’s not what Ross though he was and the boss-man has no other option but to move on from Gase and keep searching for a coach that can see greatness.

It is pivotal for the Miami Dolphins to make a clear rational decision and cut ties with Ryan Tannehill. Once the cord is cut, then other pieces of the future can begin to establish themselves. A team cannot plan for the future if it is stalled in the past.

Adam Gase ran the most productive offense in NFL history with Payton Manning. Gase has shown the ability to work with greatness, but attaching himself to Tannehill will end his career in Miami. Fighting to keep Tannehill this off-season will only prolong the agony of Miami fans should both remain. Gase will be fired before the 2019 season is concluded and the Dolphins will be left floundering.

Will Adam Gase’s legacy be remembered for being the guy who signed Jay Cutler and stuck with Ryan Tannehill. Will he be the coach who fell in love with players, has no business savvy or vision. Will laughs and scoffing follow decisions like offing Jarvis Landry, Jay Ajayi and Ndamukong Suh.

Gase must square his jaw and step boldly into his future. Those aforementioned players never took to a team led by Ryan Tannehill. It is not a coach’s job to create leadership at the highest level on the football field. Either that player has the respect of his teammates or he does not and clearly there’s something wrong with Tannehill’s leadership in the huddle.

From the outside, it appears Tannehill is the teacher’s pet. The boy who finishes every assignment on time, brings in cookies and listens intently to every word from the teacher’s mouth. In the back of the room, the boys who should defend this QB on the field secretly despise him. This can no longer go on, and if Gase cannot see it, than he’s as blind as the teacher and it’s time for a change.

Gase must come to terms with all of these obvious issues or he may never land a head coaching job again.

It’s time coach...

Time to find your own quarterback...

Time to stake your own future...

Before the coach killer strikes again…

Miami Miracle Crashes and Burns in Minneapolis

Twenty-one first quarter points quickly erased the Miami Miracle as the Dolphins crashed and burned in Minneapolis. The Vikings running game gashed the Miami defense on three straight drives, while the Miami offense floundered. The game and Miami's playoff hopes ended before halftime. An average Minnesota Vikings team resembled the purple people eaters, annihilating the hapless Dolphins.

Minkah Fitzpatrick stepping in front of a Kirk Cousins pass and dashing into the endzone and a Kalen Ballage 75-yard touchdown run were the only hint of life Miami showed all day.

It was not enough, Ryan Tannehill stood flat footed in the face of a fierce pass rush, throwing for only 108 yards. After a brilliant performance against New England, Tannehill completed only 11 of 24 passes, looking beleaguered, confused and shell-shocked.

Enough of the Tannehill debate...

Clearly we've seen enough.

The Miami offensive line played an atrocious game allowing nine sacks. Even the invincible Frank Gore could not endure the pounding and left the game with an injured ankle. The Dolphin defense surrendered the line of scrimmage from the onset as the Vikings rushed for 220 yards and Cousins passed for another 215.

Six straight road losses for the Dolphins is the tale of the season. Miami does not bring the same intensity on the road, playing uninspired football in a game broadcast nationally. The euphoria of a walk off victory the previous week quickly gave way to the reality that the Miami Dolphins cannot match up with quality teams on the road. Miami has lost by an average of 17.7 points per road game during the six game skid.

The Dolphins are 7-17 on the road during Adam Gase's tenure and only three of those defeats have been less than ten points. While the Miami defense looked like a revolving door, the offense was equally pathetic. After the 75 yard Kalen Ballage burst to open the second half, Miami's next five drives totaled -27 yards...

Reverting to bad Tannehill, the Miami quarterback completed only 45.8 percent of his passes for 108 yards. His magical 155 rating a week ago, sunk to 59 this week as the Vikings took away the dink passes and forced him off his spot. The offensive line was downright offensive and did not show up for the game.

Enough debate...

It's time for a change.

Both sides of the ball looked lackadaisical and the 41-17 loss was not even that close. Nine sacks are a team record for a single game. Kirk Cousins came into the game as the worst free agent acquisition of the season only to put up 215 yards, 2 TDs and a 112 rating against perhaps the worst defense in the NFL.

It is time for this team to take a long realistic view at how far it is from the next level. In the present form, mediocrity is the definition of the Miami Dolphins. The quarterback has been here for seven years and has yet to reach the playoffs or finish a winning season. The coach has been here three years and his team has played 500 football and is routinely blown out on the road.

It is time for a change. If Adam Gase is unwilling to part ways with Ryan Tannehill, than it is time for Stephen Ross to fire the coach and allow the QB to move on. Any fear that Tannehill will somehow acquire greatness is a foolish notion. Quarterbacks do not take eight years to find some magic formula and anyone who thinks differently is delusional, including the coach of the Miami Dolphins.

Adam Gase has the potential to be a great coach, he can win games he should lose. Unfortunately he will never be that coach with a wildly inconsistent quarterback. If Dan Marino had been in that huddle, the words from his mouth would be ringing in the stands. Tannehill has no leadership skills and it shows vividly on the road.

Enough debate...

It's time for a change.

If Gase is unwilling to make the changes needed on this football team, there is no other recourse than to fire him. Tannehill is what he is, a backup quarterback. Joe Philbin was fired for trying to draft his replacement...

Will Adam Gase be fired for trying to keep the same quarterback?

Tannehill is a coach killer...

Meanwhile, Dolphin fans must agonize season after season mired in his mediocrity. If Mike Tannenbaum is unwilling to do what is right for this team and insists on maintaining the status quo, than he too must be fired.

The personnel people have been changed, the coaches have been changed and the Miami Dolphins remain the same. The only constant on this team is Ryan Tannehill, whether he's a tough guy, whether he has a rocket arm, whether he's smart, whether he's a team guy is irrelevant, you are what your record says you are... Mediocre.

Miami beat New England with a miracle play...

It was a euphoric moment in a season that has been grinding down to this, 7-7 mediocrity. It will be eight years next season.

Enough debate...

We've seen enough...

Time to move on...

Dolphins Pull Out a Miraculous Victory

There are games that define teams and players, games that erase all the critics, games with such a warm afterglow; they leave you reaching for a cigarette. The Miami Dolphin win over the Patriots was one of those games.

The idea of using Rob Gonkowski as the deep safety seems so Belichickian, until the Gronk actually has to become a defender and make an open field tackle. Kenyan Drake was feeling lonely watching Frank Gore run through the New England defense. When Drake got the ball on the final play, nothing would stop him from outrunning the Gronk all the way to victory.

For Dolphin fans, the moment will live forever in the lore of a team desperately needing spark. The Dolphins stood up to the AFC East bullies, duking it out toe to toe, but seemed destined for the knockout blow with 7 seconds left, down by five points.

Somehow the magic happened, a pass to Kenny Stills, a lateral to Devante Parker, another lateral to Kenyan Drake and the field of dreams opened up. The Miami Dolphins won the game.

New England fans will call it luck, high school shenanigans and of course, there was a certain amount of luck involved. This one play is the perfect example of how a football team learns how to win. How a football team learns that luck only matters if the team is in a position to win.

With a minute left in the first half, New England blocked a punt and had a very short field to score. The Dolphins did not allow a single point, in fact, they forced Brady to make an uncharacteristic mistake, he was sacked with no timeouts and the half ended.

What does this have to do with luck? Every person and every team has the same amount of luck, what matters is, if you're in a position to benefit from that luck. If Miami had been 8 points behind at the end of the game, the last play would have been a lot different.

By fighting for every inch at the end of the first half, Miami was able to stay alive and within in a touchdown at the end of the game. By making that goal line stand, the Dolphin's final lucky play turned into victory.

This is the difference between winning and losing. It is the reason Miami can be outgained, lose in time of possession and turnovers, yet still win. Luck does not matter if you are not in a position to win. Adam Gase knows this, he teaches it and his players do not quit until the final whistle blows.

Ryan Tannehill had perhaps his finest game as a Miami Dolphin. The local press and indeed this site have been insistent that Tannehill is nothing more than an average quarterback. If any player on the Dolphins was an example of staying in the game until the final whistle, it was Ryan Tannehill.

JaWaun James stomped his 300 pounds firmly on Tannehill's right ankle and it looked like Tannehill was done. No one would have said a word if Tannehill did not return to that field, but he taped the ankle and hobbled back out there to lead his team. A team one last desperate breath from playoff elimination. In the end, Tannehill and his team deservedly sucked in the sweet aroma of victory.

Kenny Stills, made some ugly mistakes. He slid to the ground in the fourth quarter with his team leading and needing a first down. Had he simply dove over the line, Miami may have won the game without those final heroics. He dropped another first down throw that caused the final punt.

Stills didn't quit, he stepped into the open zone, caught that final pass and flipped it to Parker, who flipped it to Drake, who found the endzone. Stills knew it was a desperate play, but he also knew it was possible because Miami had left themselves in a position for luck to do its magic.

Maybe all Dolphin fans need to learn the lesson of luck. When you give up and put a lucky break out of reach from helping, you lose. The luck was there, the same luck everyone has, but luck doesn't matter if you can't use it.

Tannehill may never be a great quarterback, Stills may never be a great receiver and Adam Gase may never be a great coach, but they will win. The will win because they do not give up.

The Miami Dolphins probably need a better QB, could use some linebackers and secondary...

But in the end, if they believe they can win and keep victory in their grasp...

These Miami Dolphins will find a way...

Breaking The Miami Dolphin Chain of Mediocrity

197-197 since 1994, Miami Dolphin fans understand these numbers all too well, Adam Gase - 21-21, Ryan Tannehill - 40-42. It comes as little surprise the Dolphins head into the bye week 5-5. Every Dolphin-centric media site has been posting these numbers in one form or another. 25 years is long enough to be what your record says you are…

Mediocre…

Don Shula was forced into retirement after the 1995 season and the Dolphins have wilted into average ever since. There are so many data points to analyze in a quarter century, but perhaps the most basic is correct.

Occam’s razor: The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.

Since Shula, ten head coaches have taken over the franchise and none has broken the chain of mediocrity. Adam Gase obviously falls into this averageness, but for him to be 21-21 is astonishing considering what he’s had to work with. This season, the team has been decimated by injuries, outgained by 787 yards, outscored by 57 points, ranked 28th in offense and 26th in defense. It’s nothing short of remarkable Miami is 5-5 given how statistically bad this team actually is.

Adam Gase is not the problem…

Occam’s razor: The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.

Since drafting Dan Marino in 1983, the Miami Dolphins have drafted only a single quarterback in the first round of the NFL draft. Ryan Tannehill was picked in 2012. It could be argued that with Marino manning the position, there was no need to draft another QB. That makes sense except Marino retired in 1999 and the Dolphins didn’t draft a 1st round QB for another 12 years…

Historically, great teams are led by great QBs. As the NFL has matured into a less violent and more score happy league, the dependence on the QB position has become paramount. In truth, only one position on the football field can realistically be responsible for winning football games.

It’s not to say, the QB is solely responsible for winning football games. It means, in many games the QB is the difference between winning and losing. Statistical averages show, 23% of games will be decided by 3 or fewer points and 46% of games will be decided by 7 or fewer points.

23% is roughly 4 games in a season, for Adam Gase, it’s the difference between being a great coach and an average coach. It’s the difference between ending the season 8-8 and ending the season 12-4. It would be much less than bold to say a QB like Tom Brady is worth 3 points in any given game.

Occam’s razor: The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.

This entire article is an attempt to look at the simplest solution to a 25 year problem… At 40-42 it’s clear that Ryan Tannehill is not worth 3 points per game and this is historically correct for this player. In 2011, Tannehill’s senior at Texas A&M, the team was a pre-season darling, ranked 1st overall by many pundits, they finished 7-6. Three of those loses were by 3 points or less, only one loss was by more than 7 points.

Ryan Tannehill is mediocre because he is not worth those 3 points that are the difference between winning teams and average teams. There’s nothing wrong with Ryan Tannehill, he has all the skills, attitude and potential any coach could ask for. Those attributes are what Adam Gase sees in him and why Gase believes Tannehill is an NFL caliber quarterback.

Clearly with the 28th ranked offense and 26th ranked defense, Miami should not be 5-5. This means Adam Gase is actually a very, very good coach who could easily be great, but he’s missing those 3 points from a great QB. Gase is stubborn and maybe to a fault if he does not take a long look at how to break the chain of mediocrity.

Other players understand this concept, it’s the reason veteran free agents will go to New England for less money and why they came to Miami when Dan Marino was behind center. Players in the NFL are all good. The fine line between winning and losing is the confidence gained when 23% of all games are won by 3 points and the winning team has one guy who can make that difference.

Occam’s razor: The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.

Do the Miami Dolphins truly want to break the chain of mediocrity? Does Adam Gase truly want to create a legacy as a great coach? The simplest answer is most likely correct. Don Shula had John Unitas, Bob Griese and Dan Marino as his quarterbacks, Shula won more games than any coach in NFL history. All of those QBs were worth 3 points per game and have a bust in the Hall-of-Fame.

Maybe the “IT” factor is not some mystical force that one guy has and another does not. Maybe “IT” is simply 3 points. It doesn’t seem like much, but when you narrow down another sport, like swimming where a race is won by 100ths of a second, or golf where 1 stoke wins a 4-day tournament, 3 points should not be taken lightly.

This is what happens with a QB like Ryan Tannehill, the 3 points he lost by in college were taken lightly in the wrong direction. If not for a faulty defense, his team would have won those games. If not for a penalty, an injury, a slip, a fall, a fumble… His team would not have lost by 3 stinking points. In reality, they lost because he’s not worth those 3 points a game.

Occam’s razor: The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.

If the Miami Dolphins truly wish to break the chain of mediocrity, get a QB worth the 3 points of “IT.” Do not stop trying until that player is attained. It really doesn’t matter how good Minkah Fitzpatrick is, or Laremy Tunsil, or any other player at any other position, they are not worth 3 points. Those players only have value, once the 3 points of “IT” are secured.

Ten head coaches have come and gone, with multitudes of schemes and assistants, they obviously are not the difference. Miami has drafted only one 1st round quarterback in a league that is defined by quarterback play. It seems so simple…

Maybe it is…

Maybe the simplest solution is the correct one.

Brock Osweiler Leads Miami to a Wild Victory in OT

The Miami Dolphins came up big with a wild win against the Chicago Bears.

There was a collective groan and the echo of, "careful what you wish for," when Ryan Tannehill was ruled out for the game. It was his 21st missed game in the last three years. Brock Osweiler meanwhile, is certainly no Jay Cutler, but since leaving Denver with a huge free agent contract to play in Houston, he has been unable to regain the magic, until Sunday.

After exchanging punts, Osweiler and the Dolphins put together a 54-yard drive that culminated in a touchdown pass to newly signed tight end Nick O'Leary. O'Leary is a local Palm Beach native, who also happens to be the grandson of golf legend, Jack Nicholas. O'Leary did Jack proud, playing a very fine football game for his hometown team.

On the ensuing drive, the Bears seemed to find their stride and went for it on 4th and 1. It wasn't to be, as Miami's premier defender Reshad Jones, sniffed out the screen and shut down the Bears. Plays like this demonstrate why Miami is not the same team without Jones on the field. His presence lifts the entire defense.

After punting back and forth, the Bears got it going again with a 74-yard drive to the Miami 1 yard line. Just when it seemed Chicago would tie the game Robert Quinn stripped Howard and the ever-present Kiko Alonso jumped on the loose ball. Miami had stuffed the Bears again.

Miami began driving the football again, moving 64 yards in 11-plays when Brock Osweiler took a shot down field to Devante Parker. Parker failed to protect his QB, leading to an Osweiler INT without Parker even attempting to make a play on the ball. Miami went into half time leading 7-0. The play may have been the final straw for Parker, who did not play another down.

On the heels of that disparaging play, the second half started disastrous for the Miami Dolphins. The Bears scored in three plays. Osweiler proceeded to telegraph an awful interception trying to find Albert Wilson on the sideline. In one play, the Bears scored again, erasing the tie to lead 14-7. It was easily Osweiler's worst play of the game.

Miami drove 43-yards in 8 plays but settled for a field goal to pull within 14-10. Three plays later, the Bears cut through the Miami defense like a hot knife through butter and scored again. With the score now 21-10, the Dolphins looked shell-shocked and it seemed the rout was on.

Miami did not cave as expected and drove the ball 68-yards in 11 plays, giving the defense a much needed rest. Osweiler did not seem bothered by much of anything and team followed his leadership. Unfortunately, the Dolphins were unable to convert the touchdown and settled for a field goal to end the third quarter, down 21-13.

The bears began the fourth quarter by driving all the way to the Miami 3 yard line when the magic began to happen. TJ McDonald stepped in front of a Trubisky pass in the endzone and the Dolphin defense breathed new life into the entire team.

The Dolphins worked the field for six plays when Osweiler flipped a short pass to Albert Wilson. Wilson shredded the Bears secondary leaving would be tacklers clutching nothing but air. 43-yards later, Wilson danced into the endzone leaving the Dolphins down by 2 points.

Adam Gase, decide to ride the train out and went for two. Osweiler was chased from the pocket. On a typical non-call for Miami, Danny Amendola was pushed to the ground. Unfazed, Osweiler kept the play alive long enough to throw a rope to Kenny Stills in the back of the endzone and Miami had completed the comeback to tie the game at 21.

The Bears again took control of the Miami defense, immediately driving 75-yards in 11 plays, while eating nearly 6 minutes off the game clock to take back the lead 28-21.

Albert Wilson would have none of that and in one play, raced through the entire vaunted Chicago defense, 75-yards into the endzone and Miami had tied the game at 28 in less than 30 seconds.

Miami could not convert after Kiko Alonso forced a fumble recovered by Howard and went 3 and out. With only 34-seconds left, deep in their own territory, Chicago opted to take the game into overtime.

Miami won the toss and promptly rode the horse named Frank Gore all the way to the one yard line. Then disaster struck, Kenyon Drake took a handoff and bounced right heading for the winning TD when the ball was popped loose. Drake lost the handle and hung his head in despair as the Bears drove down for the winning field goal.

But the great Gods would have none of it and former Dolphin Cody Parkey promptly missed the game winning field goal, wide right...

Osweiler one more time took the reigns, getting the ball three straight times to a redeemed Kenyon Drake for a total of 22-yards. A quick throw to Amendola for 6 yards positioned Miami at the 29 yard line. Osweiler spiked the ball with only 3 seconds left before the game would end in a tie.

After a Chicago icing, rookie kicker Jason Sanders stepped up and knocked through the game winning 47-yard field goal as time expired. All over Miami fandom pandemonium exploded. The Dolphins had miraculously gutted out an incredible victory after two straight agonizing losses.

For the much maligned Brock Oweiler, the victory was sweet. For Kenyon Drake, what could have been a confidence destroying fumble was washed away with the savory flavor of victory. The Miami defense showed again that this unit is moving toward something special.

Coach Adam Gase stuck with his team and never allowed them to think victory was impossible. We're left to ponder the future of Ryan Tannehill, but allow that to rest while the sweet scent of this win resonates in the hearts of Miami fans everywhere. :) :) :)

Time for Miami Dolphin Soul Searching

Obviously, the Miami Dolphins did not show up against the New England Patriots. Addressing this problem by declaring Ryan Tannehill sucks on every social media forum has no value. This team has talented players and the coaching staff is very good. There is no denying, one Patriot player is better than any on the Dolphins roster, the QB.

Not recognizing the QB as the key, is simply stubborn ignorance. At this point, it makes little difference, it cannot change this season. Tannehill can be good when everything goes right; he is not good when obstacles present themselves. These obstacles are not as apparent as most would think. Tempo dictates NFL football, when things go good, they tend to go very good and when things go bad, they tend to go very bad.

The Miami Dolphins knew beyond any doubt, the officiating of this game would be lopsided. It is particularly important at the beginning of the game when the tempo and nuances are set in motion. Here are some examples of how the officiating can dictate early critical drives.

On the initial drive, the Miami offense is moving then, offensive holding on Kilgore at 50 effectively stuffs the drive, forcing a punt. Miami is off the field without establishing momentum.

NE gets the ball and the Miami defense is playing well. A Brady incompletion should stop the drive, but a highly questionable defensive holding by Howard gives NE an automatic first down. Brady remains on the field and is able to establish his rhythm.

The defense still managed to hold NE to a field goal, but the tempo was dictated by two calls. By the end of the game, those calls get fluffed off as whinny Miami fans complaining about officials.

We're missing the point...

Adam Gase and his staff have to understand what they are playing against. In New England against Coach Batman and Wonder Boy, the refs are going to call the game slanted.

There is only one way to combat slanted officials at the beginning of games. Miami needs to quit starting every game with tippy-toe trap runs and dinky bubble screens and go for the dagger, early and often. The officials can call holding on any trap play or bubble screen, there is bound to be some ticky tack holding if they choose to call it.

On the flip side, the NFL loves big plays! Whatever makes it to ESPN and brings fans to the game, that's what they want. Whether anyone chooses to believe it or not, those flags are a little more reluctant on home runs than they are on bubble screens.

There's another reason to come out boldly, they are going to call these penalties anyway why not while making a chunk play? If the flag stays in the pocket, bingo! There's the tempo! Even if it doesn't work the defense will be on its heels.

They will be backing out of the box instead of running into it, again, the tempo is set.

The Dolphins played right into the Patriot's game plan. The officials are going to dictate the game, but when they call back huge plays, everyone notices. When they're stopping the bubble screen offense, no one cares.

Enough said...

The Miami Dolphins must address a very simple question...

Are they capable of winning the Super Bowl with Ryan Tannehill at QB?

Take some time… Saver the question, let it resonate because that's why you play the game, to win the Super Bowl...

Are the Dolphins capable of winning the Super Bowl with Ryan Tannehill at QB?

Before the New England game, big plays masked Miami's greatest offensive problem in recent years, 3rd down conversions. Miami is currently ranked 27th in the league. In 2017 Miami was dead last, 2016 - 21st, 2015 - 30th... Playoff teams rank at the top of this list, not at the bottom. There are two main reasons why a team ranks poorly.

Number one is penalties that leave the team in untenable down and distance.

Number two is poor QB play under pressure.

Against New England on the biggest stage, Ryan Tannehill did not show up?

Sure, Adam Gase has some answering to do because he's the coach, but he's not the guy out there on the field. Tannehill is not the leader Gase has been spouting about for three weeks while his team pulled out games against marginal opponents.

Miami came back against the Raiders by Tannehill throwing two 1-yard passes...

The QB stats were a complete folly and the guy up in New England knew his team was not going to get beat by 1-yard passes.

Miami spent 2nd and 4th round picks at TE. Are those players still on the team? Are they just bad picks? It seems that if the Dolphins don’t score on a big play, they can barely move the ball. Of the 10 drives with Tannehill on the field, seven ended in punts, two in turnovers and the other ran out the first half.

None of those 10 drives lasted more than five plays...

For some levity so we understand I'm not only picking on Tannehill, the Dolphins defense gave up scoring drives of 74, 67, 22, 85, 59 and 90 yards. The Patriots converted 10 of 15 third downs. They out-gained the Dolphins 449-172. They controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes and ran 75 plays.

“I didn’t see this coming,” a dejected Adam Gase said afterward.

Painfully I must admit, I did see this coming. I saw it coming because I answered the question above actually a few years ago, but the knee injuries pushed the reality further into the future, which is now.

I like Ryan Tannehill. He is a fine man and a very talented quarterback. He simply doesn't carry his team when the stakes depend on him being that guy.

Adam Gase believes if the system is run well enough, Tannehill does not need to be that guy. He could be right, if he had Ray Lewis or Derrick Brooks, Jon Lynch and Warren Sapp, but he doesn't.

Let's be clear, the season is not over, in fact Miami can get a lot better if they learn from this game. So what are the lessons?

Ryan Tannehill is never going to be a great quarterback. This means the team around him must execute with perfect precision if the Miami Dolphins hope to be a contending team...

Miami must understand, the officials are an opponent every week, particularly early in the game. They cannot allow the officials to dictate the early tempo. They must force flags on huge highlight plays because if the flags are going to fly away, Miami may as well be taking shots down the field.

The dinky bubble screens and trap runs have been exposed. Miami must invent a different game plan each week that is not so easily predictable. It's the NFL, no matter how well a team executes, if the other team knows the plays, they will win.

Please stop saying Cameron Wake is a special player... Lost in all the Tannehill talk is the other disappearing Miami star, Wake. He plays against the right tackle, he's had Suh and now Quinn to take away double teams, and he still doesn't get it done.

Like Tannehill, Wake does not show up in big games and he was absent again against New England. If these are the leaders of the Miami Dolphins, well maybe they should follow Suh, Landry and Pouncey out the door because on the biggest stage, they disappeared...

Someone once said, "Ryan Tannehill is just good enough to get you fired..."

Are you listening Adam Gase?