Josh Rosen: Historical Miami Dolphin Steal

Why Josh Rosen
Written by: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

All the reasons he can be the starting QB in 2020 and win a Super Bowl

The second of a two part series –

This analysis will not spend much time with Arizona Cardinals because frankly, what I saw was a really poor example of an NFL franchise. Winning three games was a masterpiece playing for that dysfunctional team. The only good decision Cardinal GM Steve Keim made, was realizing quickly how badly he had botched the decision to hire former head coach Steve Wilks. If you want to see a highlight, the only video to watch is the victory over the Green Bay Packers that got Mike McCarthy fired.

Let’s start with the obvious; check out this video of his game against Texas A&M in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H_BQAimYfA.  If this is not enough, you aren’t paying attention.

His footwork in eluding the rush, his ability to throw while being hit, the pump fakes and leading defenders away with his eyes to allow another receiver to get open, are the very definition of an NFL QB. Now, granted the TXA&M defense gave up 30.7 points per game and finished 87th of 109 schools in that category, but a 34 point 3rd quarter deficit is the 2nd greatest comeback in the history of the NCAA.

I believe he can be a high percentage passer in the NFL. In his final season at UCLA, without much talent around him, he completed 62.5% of his passes and that included 63% against the blitz and 31 dropped passes. He did all this while getting sacked 26 times in 11 games and taking many more hits. Add in the drops and he is at 69.4% for his last season at UCLA.

While draft pundits looking for flaws will say he does not have the strongest arm, he can make all the throws, but just occasionally underthrows the deep ball. His mechanics are as good as anyone I have watched coming out of school. Take a look at some other film and you see the same things from the Texas A&M game. He climbs the pocket exceptionally well and though he is not fast, he has the footwork that you might see from a Marino or a Brady while in the pocket.

Another good piece of film to watch is Josh versus Washington in 2017 playing against two DB’s, two LB’s and a DT who were drafted into the NFL; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRUJpey8Yhc  He gets hit and harassed throughout this game. In the first seven plays shown, he get hits on five of them, two sacks, a roughing call, and a scramble but sticks in there. Washington has an exceptional defense and is 6-1 and ranked when they play. At the 2:08 mark check out the footwork in the pocket that results in a throw away, but is followed by a TD pass where he threads the needle.

Another game I watched was this against USC in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55ZIFvl6L84  He demonstrates his toughness again as they come after him throughout the game. I especially like the two deep passes he throws in the first 2:15 of this video, especially the second one where he drops a dime, so much for not having a strong enough arm. In this video you will see him lead players perfectly to catch the ball in stride, you will see him as a willing blocker on a reverse and also see some of those drops we referenced earlier. Now we see plenty of tipped balls, one of those fumbles and an interception on this film too, so there are some good reference points for evaluation, including plenty examples of his toughness.

I realize I am asking for you to invest some time watching these video breakdowns, but they are very telling and this is the kind of detail we all need to make an evaluation of his skills as a quarterback.

Playing QB, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, requires a very particular set of skills. I believe that Rosen has those skills in spades. He throws with anticipation and demonstrates very good spatial awareness. He sees players and knows where they will be and where others around them will be when the ball is traveling at a particular velocity to arrive at the point he has chosen.

As you will recall from my pre-draft article, this is one of the key defining traits of an elite NFL QB. But if you read my draft musings you also know that the first two traits mentioned were leadership and competiveness. These are the traits everyone questions about Rosen.

I looked at these three particular pieces of film for a reason. I was looking for leadership and competitiveness. A 34 point comeback takes leadership, playing a tough defense that has your players overmatched and playing your clearly superior rival that is 9-2, requires competitiveness and the toughness to never backed down in the face of adversity.

None of us were in the locker room, nor on the practice field where we can tell how the players around him treat him and react to him. I thought his departure from AZ showed some growth in this regard, particularly his video message. But also no one spoke up, even anonymously to say anything negative about him as a teammate or a leader.

Let me add this from a personal experience perspective. My career has been spent leading sales teams, coaching and training future leaders in our company. I believe leadership is not something you have at birth. It can be taught and we do it all the time. Mitch Trubisky spent a bunch of time after his first year reading and learning about how to be a better leader. Let’s all hope that Josh is doing the same thing because the evidence supports that he has been trying.

Another thing I will mention about Josh that can’t be overlooked; he is smart as hell and he is a really good athlete, from a strong athletic background. He may not be a Manning, but his bloodlines and his exploits of youth (high school state champion, top ranked tennis player) serve notice that he can and will understand how to perform in the moment.

Leadership is the only thing we still want to see and that high school state championship gives us a little hope, but he needs to prove this every day. How he competes with Fitzpatrick, how the team arrives at that final decision after the competition. These will be things to watch for, especially what is not said or what the body language of his teammates tells you after it all shakes out. Does he win the locker room?

All of this points to someone who damn sure could be a future leader of an NFL franchise. What stands out and what else do you see that tells YOU he can be a Super Bowl winning QB in the league?

Josh Rosen: Historical Miami Dolphin Steal

Why Josh Rosen
Written by: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

All the reasons he can be the starting QB in 2020 and win a Super Bowl


The second of a two part series –

This analysis will not spend much time with Arizona Cardinals because frankly, what I saw was a really poor example of an NFL franchise. Winning three games was a masterpiece playing for that dysfunctional team. The only good decision Cardinal GM Steve Keim made, was realizing quickly how badly he had botched the decision to hire former head coach Steve Wilks. If you want to see a highlight, the only video to watch is the victory over the Green Bay Packers that got Mike McCarthy fired.

Let’s start with the obvious; check out this video of his game against Texas A&M in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H_BQAimYfA.  If this is not enough, you aren’t paying attention.

His footwork in eluding the rush, his ability to throw while being hit, the pump fakes and leading defenders away with his eyes to allow another receiver to get open, are the very definition of an NFL QB. Now, granted the TXA&M defense gave up 30.7 points per game and finished 87th of 109 schools in that category, but a 34 point 3rd quarter deficit is the 2nd greatest comeback in the history of the NCAA.

I believe he can be a high percentage passer in the NFL. In his final season at UCLA, without much talent around him, he completed 62.5% of his passes and that included 63% against the blitz and 31 dropped passes. He did all this while getting sacked 26 times in 11 games and taking many more hits. Add in the drops and he is at 69.4% for his last season at UCLA.

While draft pundits looking for flaws will say he does not have the strongest arm, he can make all the throws, but just occasionally underthrows the deep ball. His mechanics are as good as anyone I have watched coming out of school. Take a look at some other film and you see the same things from the Texas A&M game. He climbs the pocket exceptionally well and though he is not fast, he has the footwork that you might see from a Marino or a Brady while in the pocket.

Another good piece of film to watch is Josh versus Washington in 2017 playing against two DB’s, two LB’s and a DT who were drafted into the NFL; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRUJpey8Yhc  He gets hit and harassed throughout this game. In the first seven plays shown, he get hits on five of them, two sacks, a roughing call, and a scramble but sticks in there. Washington has an exceptional defense and is 6-1 and ranked when they play. At the 2:08 mark check out the footwork in the pocket that results in a throw away, but is followed by a TD pass where he threads the needle.

Another game I watched was this against USC in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55ZIFvl6L84  He demonstrates his toughness again as they come after him throughout the game. I especially like the two deep passes he throws in the first 2:15 of this video, especially the second one where he drops a dime, so much for not having a strong enough arm. In this video you will see him lead players perfectly to catch the ball in stride, you will see him as a willing blocker on a reverse and also see some of those drops we referenced earlier. Now we see plenty of tipped balls, one of those fumbles and an interception on this film too, so there are some good reference points for evaluation, including plenty examples of his toughness.

I realize I am asking for you to invest some time watching these video breakdowns, but they are very telling and this is the kind of detail we all need to make an evaluation of his skills as a quarterback.

Playing QB, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, requires a very particular set of skills. I believe that Rosen has those skills in spades. He throws with anticipation and demonstrates very good spatial awareness. He sees players and knows where they will be and where others around them will be when the ball is traveling at a particular velocity to arrive at the point he has chosen.

As you will recall from my pre-draft article, this is one of the key defining traits of an elite NFL QB. But if you read my draft musings you also know that the first two traits mentioned were leadership and competiveness. These are the traits everyone questions about Rosen.

I looked at these three particular pieces of film for a reason. I was looking for leadership and competitiveness. A 34 point comeback takes leadership, playing a tough defense that has your players overmatched and playing your clearly superior rival that is 9-2, requires competitiveness and the toughness to never backed down in the face of adversity.

None of us were in the locker room, nor on the practice field where we can tell how the players around him treat him and react to him. I thought his departure from AZ showed some growth in this regard, particularly his video message. But also no one spoke up, even anonymously to say anything negative about him as a teammate or a leader.

Let me add this from a personal experience perspective. My career has been spent leading sales teams, coaching and training future leaders in our company. I believe leadership is not something you have at birth. It can be taught and we do it all the time. Mitch Trubisky spent a bunch of time after his first year reading and learning about how to be a better leader. Let’s all hope that Josh is doing the same thing because the evidence supports that he has been trying.

Another thing I will mention about Josh that can’t be overlooked; he is smart as hell and he is a really good athlete, from a strong athletic background. He may not be a Manning, but his bloodlines and his exploits of youth (high school state champion, top ranked tennis player) serve notice that he can and will understand how to perform in the moment.

Leadership is the only thing we still want to see and that high school state championship gives us a little hope, but he needs to prove this every day. How he competes with Fitzpatrick, how the team arrives at that final decision after the competition. These will be things to watch for, especially what is not said or what the body language of his teammates tells you after it all shakes out. Does he win the locker room?

All of this points to someone who damn sure could be a future leader of an NFL franchise. What stands out and what else do you see that tells YOU he can be a Super Bowl winning QB in the league?

Josh Rosen: The Historical Miami Dolphin Steal

Why Josh Rosen
Written by: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

All the reasons he can be the starting QB in 2020 and win a Super Bowl

The second of a two part series –

This analysis will not spend much time with Arizona Cardinals because frankly, what I saw was a really poor example of an NFL franchise. Winning three games was a masterpiece playing for that dysfunctional team. The only good decision Cardinal GM Steve Keim made, was realizing quickly how badly he had botched the decision to hire former head coach Steve Wilks. If you want to see a highlight, the only video to watch is the victory over the Green Bay Packers that got Mike McCarthy fired.

Let’s start with the obvious; check out this video of his game against Texas A&M in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H_BQAimYfA.  If this is not enough, you aren’t paying attention.

His footwork in eluding the rush, his ability to throw while being hit, the pump fakes and leading defenders away with his eyes to allow another receiver to get open, are the very definition of an NFL QB. Now, granted the TXA&M defense gave up 30.7 points per game and finished 87^th of 109 schools in that category, but a 34 point 3^rd quarter deficit is the 2^nd greatest comeback in the history of the NCAA.

I believe he can be a high percentage passer in the NFL. In his final season at UCLA, without much talent around him, he completed 62.5% of his passes and that included 63% against the blitz and 31 dropped passes. He did all this while getting sacked 26 times in 11 games and taking many more hits. Add in the drops and he is at 69.4% for his last season at UCLA.

While draft pundits looking for flaws will say he does not have the strongest arm, he can make all the throws, but just occasionally underthrows the deep ball. His mechanics are as good as anyone I have watched coming out of school. Take a look at some other film and you see the same things from the Texas A&M game. He climbs the pocket exceptionally well and though he is not fast, he has the footwork that you might see from a Marino or a Brady while in the pocket.

Another good piece of film to watch is Josh versus Washington in 2017 playing against two DB’s, two LB’s and a DT who were drafted into the NFL; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRUJpey8Yhc  He gets hit and harassed throughout this game. In the first seven plays shown, he get hits on five of them, two sacks, a roughing call, and a scramble but sticks in there. Washington has an exceptional defense and is 6-1 and ranked when they play. At the 2:08 mark check out the footwork in the pocket that results in a throw away, but is followed by a TD pass where he threads the needle.

Another game I watched was this against USC in 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55ZIFvl6L84  He demonstrates his toughness again as they come after him throughout the game. I especially like the two deep passes he throws in the first 2:15 of this video, especially the second one where he drops a dime, so much for not having a strong enough arm. In this video you will see him lead players perfectly to catch the ball in stride, you will see him as a willing blocker on a reverse and also see some of those drops we referenced earlier. Now we see plenty of tipped balls, one of those fumbles and an interception on this film too, so there are some good reference points for evaluation, including plenty examples of his toughness.

I realize I am asking for you to invest some time watching these video breakdowns, but they are very telling and this is the kind of detail we all need to make an evaluation of his skills as a quarterback.

Playing QB, to paraphrase Liam Neeson, requires a very particular set of skills. I believe that Rosen has those skills in spades. He throws with anticipation and demonstrates very good spatial awareness. He sees players and knows where they will be and where others around them will be when the ball is traveling at a particular velocity to arrive at the point he has chosen.

As you will recall from my pre-draft article, this is one of the key defining traits of an elite NFL QB. But if you read my draft musings you also know that the first two traits mentioned were leadership and competiveness. These are the traits everyone questions about Rosen.

I looked at these three particular pieces of film for a reason. I was looking for leadership and competitiveness. A 34 point comeback takes leadership, playing a tough defense that has your players overmatched and playing your clearly superior rival that is 9-2, requires competitiveness and the toughness to never backed down in the face of adversity.

None of us were in the locker room, nor on the practice field where we can tell how the players around him treat him and react to him. I thought his departure from AZ showed some growth in this regard, particularly his video message. But also no one spoke up, even anonymously to say anything negative about him as a teammate or a leader.

Let me add this from a personal experience perspective. My career has been spent leading sales teams, coaching and training future leaders in our company. I believe leadership is not something you have at birth. It can be taught and we do it all the time. Mitch Trubisky spent a bunch of time after his first year reading and learning about how to be a better leader. Let’s all hope that Josh is doing the same thing because the evidence supports that he has been trying.

Another thing I will mention about Josh that can’t be overlooked; he is smart as hell and he is a really good athlete, from a strong athletic background. He may not be a Manning, but his bloodlines and his exploits of youth (high school state champion, top ranked tennis player) serve notice that he can and will understand how to perform in the moment.

Leadership is the only thing we still want to see and that high school state championship gives us a little hope, but he needs to prove this every day. How he competes with Fitzpatrick, how the team arrives at that final decision after the competition. These will be things to watch for, especially what is not said or what the body language of his teammates tells you after it all shakes out. Does he win the locker room?

All of this points to someone who damn sure could be a future leader of an NFL franchise. What stands out and what else do you see that tells YOU he can be a Super Bowl winning QB in the league?

Why Josh Rosen Will Fail in Miami

Quadzilla (Joe Tarell) analyzes a simple question:

Why Josh Rosen will not be the starting QB in 2020 and beyond:

In the first of a two part series – we are going to see how disciplined our readers are… We want you to hold off on defending Josh in your comments and wait for part two where we will give the flip side of this argument; and yes that means you Kenny! Tell what else you don’t like about him and your opinion on why these factors will hinder his ability to lead the Dolphins.

He has been known to be difficult to coach, his college coach said he would take Darnold over Rosen. He was perceived as arrogant and spoiled rich kid, inquisitive to the point where he appears to think he is smarter than the coach, strong political opinions that might not sit well with teammates. He is known to ask why whenever a new play concept or offensive scheme is introduced.

In reality, Joshua Ballinger Lippincott Rosen might have gotten the “entitled” tag from birth. His great-great-great grandfather is Joseph Wharton, the namesake of the prestigious Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy League school. His father was a champion ice skater. His mother was captain of the Princeton lacrosse team. Josh was a nationally ranked youth tennis player. He grew up as a child of privilege in a house in L.A. valued at $8 million.

He has shown some immaturity including when he and some friends rearranged a neighbor's lawn ornaments in sexually suggestive positions. Since arriving at UCLA he has set off a social media firestorm over presidential politics, deleted at least one provocative post and been forced to apologize to the school, including after putting a blow-up hot tub in his dorm room and posting pictures on social media. And then there was his quote that in college “football and school don’t go together” and the more he tried to explain it the worse it sounded.

Not the strongest arm, evaluators before last year’s draft were very complimentary of his touch and anticipation but felt he would have trouble fitting the ball into tight windows and making the difficult throws in the NFL, though is somewhat of questionable review to some.

Build is weak and skinny, he has had injury problems in high school and college including a shoulder and multiple concussions, ran 4.92 40 and has shown poor mobility in the past, registering 53 sacks in his college career in 30 games started and 45 in 13 games with Arizona. He completed 42% of his passes when forced to move in college, though he did run for 138 yards at 6 yards a carry last year in AZ.

Started at UCLA as a freshman and they entered the season ranked 13th in the AP Poll, but lost three of their last four and finished unranked at 8-5, including losses in the final two games to USC and Nebraska who were also unranked.

UCLA finished 4-8 in 2016, 3-3 in the games Josh started before injuring his shoulder.  He had surgery to repair damage and missed the second half of the season, returning in time to participate partially in spring practice.

UCLA finished 6-5 in the 2017 games he started, Josh sat out the bowl game, after another concussion, but it was never certain if he was still feeling the effects or was protecting his draft stock. The school said it was a 100% medical decision, but Rosen was quoted as saying, “I think players are just starting to realize they have a lot of power and they don't need to be exploited when it's to their detriment". It's just every single situation is unique, and I don't think you can lump them all together." Then later said "I want to do everything I can to play in this game, I love these guys. I would give anything to get another game after this."

His college record ends up as 17-13 in games he started and his coach, Jim Mora was fired before the final game of his final season.  He left after 3 years as a true Junior after enrolling early and was 3 classes shy of a degree in Economics.

Rosen’s career statistics in college were mediocre with 61% completions, 59 TD’s to 26 Interceptions and a College Passer Rating of 139.9 with 20 fumbles.  To put that into perspective, the career leader all time is Kyler Murray at 181.3 and Rosen would not be in the top 45 of players in last year’s ranking where both Murray and Tua Tagovailoa had 199+ ratings for the season.

His record last year at AZ was 3-10 with 11 TD’s, 14 interceptions, 55.2% completions and 2278 yards for a passer rating of 66.7, which was ranked 41st of passers with at least 100 attempts. He also had 10 fumbles.  It was widely acknowledged that the AZ offensive line was weak and David Johnson ran for only 940 yards despite playing all 16 games, but this was a historically bad offense last year when they ranked 32nd in passing yards, 32nd in average per attempt, 32nd in points, and 32nd in total yards.

All of this points to someone who is not the future leader of an NFL franchise.  What stands out and what else do you see that might prevent him from succeeding in the league?

Miami Dolphin 2019 Draft Musings

2019 Draft Musings
BY: Joe Tarell (Quadzilla)

The 2019 NFL Draft beginning on April 25th in Nashville is going to be a notable draft for a number of reasons.  The main theme for this class is that it will be remembered three to five years from now as very weak in overall talent.  First let me explain that and then I will dig into some of the players and how it will likely play out.

We all know that the QB class of 2020 is supposed to be a very strong group, just as in 2017 everyone pointed to the 2018 class.  The fact is this draft is not that strong overall or at the QB.  The unanimous top player in this draft is Nick Bosa.  While many expect him to be a good NFL prospect, the injury history and the measurables do not equate to an elite prospect.  He was well-trained, having NFL level players for a father, brother and uncle, but he will not out-technique everyone in the NFL the way he did in college.  The good news is that there is awesome depth in the D-line prospects, just not elite talent.  It appears to be the same at OT.  The two places where there appears to be elite talent are at ILB and TE, which are not the glamour positions. I just think this is a draft where we may not see a single HOF candidate when it is all said and done.

The QB’s in this class are led by Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray.   Both have strengths that can’t be denied, but both are one year starters with some major concerns as well.  I list Haskins first because his weakness is mobility and that can be overcome easier than size, which is Murray’s weakness.  I would rather go watch Kyler Murray play, but I would rather not draft either of them and risk my job on it.  After that, the talent drops off very quickly as I do not believe that Drew Lock is an NFL caliber starting QB, though I believe that Daniel Jones has the most upside of all of them considering he played at Duke and not a single player from that roster is going to be drafted.  The Dolphins should wait until next year for their QB in my opinion unless Haskins falls to them in the first or Jones in the second.

Drafting a QB is more art than science and most people get it wrong.  The fact is that three of the best QB’s in the history of the NFL are Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas.  They were drafted in the 6th, 3rd and 9th rounds respectively.  Even Dan Marino, though technically a first rounder, was the sixth QB taken in 1983.  The key defining trait of great QB’s is leadership.  John Elway is the picture of the athlete you want playing QB, but took nearly 15 years to win a Super Bowl because it took time to become a leader and we are seeing that now in his role as a GM.  After leadership comes competitiveness.  And the next is the ability to deliver a football amid the chaos of an NFL pocket accurately and on time while seeing 22 moving parts and knowing how the movements will culminate in a completed pass… better known as spatial awareness.  Now tell me how the hell you measure those three things at the Combine or a freaking pro day?

Kyler Murray sat behind Baker Mayfield, but his three high school state championships and his one year at Oklahoma tell me all I need to know about his competiveness and leadership. I also think he has great spatial awareness and accuracy.  If he were over 6 feet tall we would have an Andrew Luck grade on him.  Draft him if you get the chance.  Haskins on the other hand, sat behind TJ Barrett (he’s an NFL star now isn’t he) and played on arguably one of the top three most talented teams in the country and still could not make the playoffs.  If you watch his tape closely, he has three NFL caliber WR’s and he waits for them to get clearly open before delivering the ball.  He got away with that because of the talent level at OSU but it caught up to him at times.  I still think he has a chance to be good in the NFL, but not elite.

I won’t spend much time on RB and WR because I do not believe there is a single player worthy of a first round choice in this draft.  I would almost never pick a RB in the first round and with WR’s it is almost as bad.  My theory on RB’s goes back to pee wee football and the best player is always at RB so by the time they get draft-eligible they are a dime-a-dozen and they only last three to four years anyway.  The WR position is similar these days with the proliferation of the spread offenses at the lower levels of football.  You add in the Diva Factor and the belief that this position is totally relying on the other 10 guys to have any chance for success and it is bad recipe.  Josh Jacobs is the best RB prospect and he did not even start in college.  Marquis Brown came to college weighing 144 pounds and now is a hefty 166, while DK Metcalf looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.  Really?  These are the top two prospects?  I will wait until rounds two through four and reduce the Diva Factor, thank you very much.

The TE class is intriguing again this year.  TE’s usually take a year to develop in the NFL so there is still some hope for Gisecki and Smythe.  I bring those two names up for a couple reasons; one, because this is a Dolphins blog and I am still pretty high on both of them, but also because they are two separate types of TE.  One is primarily a blocker and the other is primarily a receiver. The feeling is that T.J. Hockenson can be both so he is expected to go early, Noah Fant and Irv Smith, Jr. are better receivers than blockers but Smith is probably closer to being a combo than Fant.  All three could go in round one as the TE position has become more of a focal point lately.  Teams play follow the leader and the Patriots have always been the leaders in utilizing the TE, but now with Philadelphia winning a Super Bowl and the Chiefs having Kelce as a primary threat, they are becoming all the rage.  We will see 15 or more TE’s get drafted this year after 14 went each of the last two years.

The OT class is not very strong this year.  If there is top LT prospect he is usually going in the top five and we may not see one come off the board until after 10 and even some of the other Tackles expected to get first round attention are potentially moving to OG.  Jawaan Taylor seems to be the top  OL prospect followed by Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams, Cody Ford and a couple of interior guys like Garrett Bradbury and Chris Lindstrom or Erik McCoy.  Again, some good depth, but not exactly rated as elite.

The defensive line is the strength of this draft and  is usually split into two groups these days.  The edge rushers, who could be OLB’s in a 3-4 or DE’s in a 4-3, but they are primarily edge defenders who rush the passer and set the edge in the run game.  The second group is the interior players, which may be a 3-4 DE, a DT or NT.  The edge group is pretty strong and deep, but not elite in my opinion.  Bosa, Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary, Clelin Ferrell, Brian Burns and potentially one or two others could all go in round one.  When it comes to edge defenders I always count productivity over measurable, that is why Sweat, Allen and Bosa should all go well ahead of Gary.  The leading sacker of all time in the NCAA is in this draft, Jaylon Ferguson, who went to Louisiana Tech – I want him before I want Rashan Gary.  A wise person once wrote, ‘whatever they are before they get paid, they will only become more like that after they get paid.’

In the interior defensive line we again have a strong and deep group led by Quinnen Williams, who may be the best player in the draft.  Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, Jeffrey Simmons (who is recovering from a torn ACL), Dexter Lawrence and Jerry Tillery could all go in the first round.  There are also enough good players here that talent can be found into rounds three and four.  Again, though, other than Williams, I do not see any elite players.  You can pick them apart for a variety a flaws; Oliver had some attitude issues and is on the small side, Lawrence has minimal production, Simmons has the ACL and some character flags, so buyer beware.  The Dolphins first pick could come from these two groups, my guess is Wilkins.

At the LB position there a couple of players that really turned heads at the combine.  Normally, I am opposed to the workout warrior, but when the production is there and with Devin White and Devin Bush it is definitely on film, and they run 4.41 at the combine, hello first round.  Bush will go later because he is only 5’11”, but these two guys are three down linebackers with a ton of tackles and plays made from sideline to sideline at two big time schools.  Plug and play.  Unfortunately there is not much depth here.

Defensive back is another area where there is no truly elite player in this draft.  Many have the best CB as Greedy Williams from LSU but I wouldn’t draft him before the third round for one simple reason; he won’t tackle.  Watch his tape and you will see he is a pile inspector.  Tackling is about desire, not talent or skill, it does not get better in the NFL.  Deandre Baker and Byron Murphy are much better candidates and likely first rounders, but there really is not much to get excited about.  Some safeties like Jonathan Abram or Taylor Rapp may go in round one but they are mostly graded as 2nd rounders.

So what is the consensus? Miami at 13 should be able to get a really good OL or DL candidate.  I don’t expect an all-pro to be sitting there unless you want to draft Jeffrey Simmons and give him a redshirt year.  He has top 5 talent, but tore his ACL in February preparing for the draft so there is little chance he contributes this year.  If the Dolphins are truly rebuilding for 2020 and beyond this pick make sense.  Otherwise pick Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams or Cody Ford for the OL.  I also like Garret Bradbury as a guard or center, but this is a little early.  Maybe a trade back is in order.

Then in the second round Miami should just flip the side of the ball.  If you go Simmons in round one, go OL at 48, where Kaleb McGary, Titus Howard or one of the highly ranked interior players should be available.  If you go OL in round one, then Jaylon Ferguson, Jerry Tillery, L.J. Collier or Chase Winovich should be available.  The point is stick to the strength of this draft and go get some big uglies.

Miami should avoid skill positions until at least round three unless a DB falls in their lap in round two.  If Dwayne Haskins somehow slips to 13, take him.  I have a good feeling about him, but all of this talk of him slipping is a just smoke screen.  Remember, it is lying season.  Three or four QB’s will likely come off the board before the Dolphins pick at 13.  And this means with T.J. Hockenson also likely off the board, the Fins will get one of the top 9-10 linemen in the draft at 13.  Get a big ugly that sacks the QB or protects the QB or trade out of the pick.  And don’t be surprised if they trade out multiple times next weekend and take 2020 choices in return.

Random Draft Musings

By Joe Tarell (AKA Quadzilla)

Every draft has a theme and this one is no different. Sometimes they are defined by the top draft pick, if it is someone who is clearly the best, but usually it is by positional strength or weakness. Last year there was a clear lack of offensive linemen and this was clear at the start of free agency when O-linemen got deals that were way too high for their skill level. Might be just the opposite this year, but most people consider it the year of the quarterback.

What is strange this year is that the best offensive lineman is a guard. This usually signals a weak class because LT is the premier position on the line and some would say is second only to QB in importance on a team. But there is a strong OT class this year, just not strong enough to out rank Quentin Nelson, the guard from Notre Dame. He might turn out to be the best player in this class 15 years from now. He is big enough and quick enough to play tackle, but has a nasty streak and the pulling ability that lends itself well to guard. He should go top five unless the QB class dominates that group. If Nelson slips some team in the second five will be very happy. There is almost no chance he gets to the Dolphins at 11 unless all six quarterbacks go in the top ten. Yes, I said six... more on that later.

There could be as many as seven O-linemen in the first round. The run will start sometime after the Redskins pick at 13. By then Nelson will be gone and those that need OL help will start taking tackles like Mike McGlinchey from Notre Dame, Connor Williams from Texas, or Kolton Miller from UCLA. But there are also interior players getting attention like Will Hernandez from UTEP who blew up the combine, Isaiah Wynn who played tackle at Georgia but projects to guard, then there are G/C players like James Daniels from Iowa, Billy Price from OSU and even Frank Ragnow from Arkansas. There is also a good second tier of players likely to go in rounds two through four.

Last year there were only two O-linemen taken in the first round but seven defensive backs and 57 total in the entire draft. Conversely, there were only 33 O-linemen taken. It won't flip flop this year but let's just say it will be more even. The DB's in this class do not have the elite talent that we have seen in years past. The consensus number one corner, Denzel Ward from OSU, is only 5'10" and is not really a consensus. Many people see the two safeties, Derwin James from FSU and Minkah Fitzpatrick from Alabama going ahead of a CB. By the time the first round is complete we will likely see Josh Jackson from Iowa, who has good tape but lacks measurables, Jaire Alexander from Louisville and possibly Mike Hughes from UCF. The interesting thing is that all the corners mentioned above have one thing in common; they each have but one year of starting experience because they were beaten out, transferred or injured. Ward gets the consensus label because he was beaten out by guys who were also first round picks at Ohio State.

We may still see seven or more DB's go in the first round because of the premium on those positions but it is just not that strong a class. We all know that the premium positions are those that pass the ball, protect the passer, sack the passer or defend the pass. Notice that catching it is not part of that group. WR is the hardest position to draft. They are typically among the most arrogant divas on the field but they are totally dependent on others for their success. This topic could be a full length article of its own but suffice it to say that there are very few receivers in this draft class that warrant risking the IME to draft in the first round. Maybe Calvin Ridley from Alabama but that is a risk when all you hear are excuses why he didn't have bigger numbers in college and why his small stature is not that big a deal.

For those who don't know, the term IME was coined a few years ago to try and measure a draftee’s potential to bust. It stands for Instant Millionaire Effect. Let's take some examples to clarify this effect using current or past prospects. Orlando Brown is an OT from Oklahoma who protected the Heisman winner's blind side for three years and some project as a first round talent. The IME says that if you are fat (400 lbs. in high school) and lazy (14 reps on the bench press) these deficiencies will not get better if you are drafted in the first round and guaranteed 12 to 25 million dollars. Reuben Foster from Alabama was widely considered one of the top five most talented players last year, but went 31st to the 49ers because he had failed drug tests and got kicked out of the combine for abusive behavior with some medical staffers. Perhaps had he fallen out of round one and out of the guaranteed millionaire category he might have gotten humbled and would not have three felony charges right now.

The Wide Receiver position is becoming the Dime-a-Dozen position that RB has been in recent years. RB has had that label because it used to be that the best kid on every Pop Warner field was put at RB so by the time you got to the NFL they were all really good so you don't want to waste a first round pick on one who will be out of the league in four years anyway because of the abuse on their body. When looking at the talent in this draft at WR, and considering the IME and diva potential, most teams will wait until later in the draft and try to get someone with skills that is a little hungrier and might actually block someone. With the proliferation of the spread at lower levels of football and most parents scared of little Johnny getting hurt, everybody wants to be a WR. It is likely we see more TE's than WR's in the first round for the first time ever.

There are three or four TE's likely to go high with Mike Gesicki from Penn State the most talented, Hayden Hurst from South Carolina the most complete and Dallas Goedert the most intriguing. Goedert has some great tape. The problem is he played at South Dakota State and has yet to run a 40. He was never wide open against inferior competition, but yet he caught everything thrown his way. Gesicki has sick skills, running a 4.54 with 41 inch vertical at nearly 6'6" and had good production in the Big Ten but he has yet to meet a defender he wanted to block. Hurst seems to be the best combo TE but he is 25 years old after washing out in pro baseball because of the yips (I thought those were only in golf). And finally there is Mark Andrews from Oklahoma who is less talented than Gesicki, but with more production (perhaps because he had a Heisman winner as his QB and roommate).

The defensive line is not particularly strong this year, especially when it comes to pass rushers. Bradley Chubb from NC State is considered the best and then it drops off quite a bit. Marcus Davenport is the Jason Pierre Paul, Barkevious Mingo of this draft class. He is built like the next Charles Haley, but he played at UT San Antonio. Maybe he is JPP or maybe he is Barkevious; someone will be intrigued enough by the measurables to gamble on him in the first round. Harold Landry from Boston College should go in the first round but only to a 3-4 teams that projects him to OLB even though he had his hand in the dirt as a 250 pound DE in college. He has the bend and speed to get around the corner so he is worth the risk even if he is just a situational pass rusher until he gets a little bigger and stronger.

The interior of the DL is also a little sparse with first round talent. Vita Vea from Washington is the best of this group and can really move for a 340 pounder. Having played some running back in high school he has the look of a bigger version Warren Sapp. There is pretty big drop off after that to DaRon Payne from Alabama and Taven Bryan from Florida. Payne is not the athlete that Bryan is but he has the production. Bryan gets an IME label though because when you see talented, but lazy in college, it doesn't usually get better with a fat bank account. Some would say that Maurice Hurst from Michigan is the best of the bunch, and if the NFL team's doctors give his heart a clean bill of health he could go before any of them.

Okay so we have gone this far without mentioning the quarterbacks why not wait a little longer. There are a few special players in this draft, but they are not at the premium positions. Nelson was already mentioned and next in line is Saquon Barkley, the RB from Penn State. He is really special in that he runs, catches, blocks, returns and has been known to throw. He should be special... for four or five years. The other guys who look like they could be special are LB’s Roquan Smith from Georgia and Tremaine Edmunds out of Virgina Tech. Smith is a little small but he plays really fast and had big time production against big time talent. Edmunds looks like a Brian Urlacher clone and he is only 19 years old with a great football family pedigree. Neither of these guys are rush linebackers so that hurts their draft value but they can both make a ton of plays and most importantly, especially for Dolphin fans, they are three down linebackers, playing the pass as well as the run. Leighton Vander Esch from Boise State could go later in the first round, but doesn't have enough quality tape to compare to these two LB's.

And finally we get to those six quarterbacks I mentioned earlier; Baker Mayfield, OU, Sam Darnold, USC, Josh Rosen, UCLA, Josh Allen, Wyoming, Mason Rudolph, OK State and Lamar Jackson from Louisville. And yes, I would draft them in that order. Allen, Rudolph and Jackson do not belong in the first round but, you know, that whole premium position thing. The key is to decide who needs one badly enough to take one at their position in the draft order or trade into a spot to get one. The Jets have already played their hand, and Cleveland is so bad at drafting QB's they should take two. The Giants are smoke screening about not picking a QB.  Eli Manning is old, he was never that great anyway and nobody expects them to be drafting at number two again anytime soon. Buffalo and Arizona do not have an adequate starter. So there are five landing spots. Throw in New England, Pittsburgh, LA Chargers and New Orleans who have old starters and Miami, Jacksonville and Denver who have questionable starters along with Cincinnati and Baltimore who should be questioning their starters, and it is easy to see six go in the first 32 or 35 picks.

So, if you were paying attention there is a mock draft in there. There were 37 names of players in this draft mentioned above, not counting Orlando Brown who was mentioned only so he could be disparaged. You guys figure out what order and to whom and that's a pretty good guesstimate of who gets picked on Thursday the 26th. This list is lighter on WR and RB and heavier on OL and TE than some, but everybody has their biases. Put them in order, let’s see your best mock.