After a hopeful 10-6, 2016 season, the Miami Dolphins regressed to 6-10 in 2017. The Vegas lines actually predicted such an outcome. The Dolphins won 12 consecutive games by 7 or less points, a feat that is impossible to sustainable over time.
This team needed to make significant strides in 2017, with more convincing victories, or the statistics would eventually even out against them. Miami endured a mountain of well-documented adversity, including losing their starting QB, which meant getting better in 2017, would be an uphill climb.
The Jay Cutler experiment was made out of desperation and the Miami Dolphins should not be ostracized for making this move. Matt Moore may have made it through a whole season, but his injury history did not indicate this being a serious option. Cutler clearly told Adam Gase he would only return from retirement if he was the starting QB.
Gase and the Dolphins threw the dice, seeing this move as perhaps the only real option to salvage the Miami offense for the 2017 season…
The Dolphins thought they could rely on their defense to make up for the uncertainty on offense, but they were wrong. The problems on offense were expected with the hurry up preparation of Jay Cutler. The holes in the defense came as a surprise and ruined Miami’s season.
The defense began to unravel during the 40 – 0 beat down by the Baltimore Ravens…
Baltimore exposed the gaping holes in the wide 9 alignment by rushing for well over 4 yards per carry. The 4-3 depends on the defensive line to hold up against the run and be dominant in rushing the passer. The wide 9 splits the defensive ends outside the offensive tackles. Baltimore was able to exploit this and open huge gaps in the middle of the defense.
Linebackers, Alonso, Timmons and Maualuga combined for 21 tackles in that game. Defensive linemen, Suh, Godchaux, Harris, Hayes, Philips, Fede, Taylor and Wake combined for just 7 tackles without a single sack…
The big money players on the DL were beaten badly, Suh had 3 tackles and Cameron Wake had none. The linebackers were finishing plays, but not before allowing gashing runs into the second level of the defense.
Miami’s offense gave up two pick sixes and a fumble recovery touchdown in this game. The defense did not seem to be an issue at the time, but the Dolphins were blindsided.
The blame was heaped on Matt Moore, starting for an injured Cutler, but the problem was far deeper. The Ravens forced Miami’s DE’s outside and pulled trapping guards into the resulting gaps, opening up huge running lanes.
Miami needed to get this fixed and they knew it. The LBs would have to play closer to the line and tighten up between the tackles, a safety would need to sneak into the box to assist.
The following week against the Raiders, the rushing lanes were somewhat shutdown, even though the Raiders ran for over 4 YPC, but the effort exposed what would be Miami’s Achilles Heel the rest of the season.
Raider TE Jared Cook slashed Miami’s secondary and LBs for 126 yards and a whopping 15.8 Yards Per Reception. The Dolphins were exposed, they had no answer for TEs or personnel to help solve the problem.
The Miami philosophy of playing from the inside out with a dominant defensive line was proving easy to defeat. In this defense, the 4 DL need to apply max pressure without blitzing because the three linebackers are needed to drop into coverage zones and shut down inside runs.
Miami ranked 27th in sacks per game…
To put that into perspective, 7 of the top 8 teams in sacks per game went to the playoffs and only 1 team in the bottom 8 made it to the dance…
Ndamukong Suh, Andre Branch and Cameron Wake accounted for over 26% of Miami’s 2017 salary cap…
Reshad Jones, Kiko Alonso, Lawrence Timmons, T.J. McDonald, Xavien Howard, Stephone Anthony, Reakwon McMillian, Bobby McCain, Cordrea Tankersley, Tony Lippett and Chase Allen accounted for less than 23% of Miami’s 2017 salary cap…
If there is any question about Miami's defensive philosophy, follow the money…
The problem is, Miami is paying for an ancient scheme that is no longer valid in the NFL…
The Patriots had 221 snaps in Dime (6-DB) Personnel this year and an astounding 161 snaps in Prevent (7-DB). Miami had SEVEN total snaps in a Dime defense. (Thank you whomever I stole these numbers from!) The Patriots faced 3rd & 10 or more on 54 snaps this year and yet they played 6 or more DBs on 382 snaps.
The Miami Dolphins used the Dime package only 7 times…
Of course Miami couldn’t cover tight ends, they were depending on low paid LBs and secondary when the rest of the NFL has evolved hybrid players capable of covering and assisting the run. Miami spent over one fourth of its salary cap on a defensive line that ranked 27th in sacks per game.
The Miami defense ranked 16th overall in 2017, 16th against the pass and 14th against the run…
On the surface, the defense looks average but because of the disparity between DL and the rest of the defense, Miami was a disaster at stopping crucial 3rd and long situations. Consider these stats…
3rd and 10 or more yards:
Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A Y/C
34 46 73.9 396 8.6 11.6
74% percent of the passes thrown against the Miami defense on 3rd and 10 or more yards were completed for an average of 11.6 YPC. This is atrocious and worse, these plays, that could get the defense off the field, are demoralizing.
On the opposite side, offenses converting these plays are laughing at the Miami defense…
30 total sacks for one of the highest paid position groups in the NFL…
All of this is not pointing out that the Miami DL is bad. It’s showing that the Miami philosophy of paying for a great defensive line is a faulty premise that no longer works in the NFL.
The ball comes out too quickly for DL to get to the passer. If the QB can run (Tyrod Taylor) the DL is not fast enough to contain him. Once the defense has stopped the opponent for 3rd and long, there are not enough good players in the secondary to finish the series.
It’s very apparent Miami needs to change its defensive strategy…
More to come on what changes could be made.
