Miami Dolphins' Future is Now

Where do the Miami Dolphins go from here? Is it a question of talent or heart? Forget about coaches, the coaching carousel has changed enough times to be certain the problem is in the Miami locker room. Questioning players always leads back to one position, the quarterback.

Throw a few names at the wall to begin analyzing these players. DeVante Parker for instance, he has all but disappeared when he was proclaimed to be some kind of freak in the off-season. He is a first round pick and obviously a mistake. It doesn't really even matter whether he performs well the rest of the season; the season is over for all intents and purposes.

Next season will be his fourth and when a first round pick takes four years to make an impact well, it's a mistake. Two interceptions happened Sunday against the Patriots on passes intended for Parker. The effort shown to avoid those picks and make a play was abysmal. The quarterback will get the stat, but it was on Parker to make a play and he did not, even in the endzone. Just say it... Bust.

Ryan Tannehill, okay, we're not supposed to talk about him because he's injured. He's a first round pick. He's 37 and 40 in 77 starts. The only winning season since he's been in Miami was one he couldn't complete. Whether it's fair or not to pass judgment is irrelevant, it will be his seventh season and there's virtually nothing to show for it. The fact is, six seasons and the first round pick has done nothing special...

Mike Pouncey, a first round center. He's supposed to be really good, but the Miami offensive line has never been dominant with Pouncey. We're not supposed to talk about him either because he's always injured and the coaches proclaim him to be great. Well he's not. He's at least playing this year, which has to add some value. The thing is, his future is uncertain, at best, and this article is about the future...

JaWuan James is not too bad for a right tackle. Here's the thing, when intentionally drafting a right tackle in the first round, the player should be dominant. It may not be easy, but right tackles can be found in other rounds. James is injured, James was injured last season. He's not a bad player, but as a first round pick, he's a right tackle and he's not exceptional...

Laremy Tunsil and Charles Harris, as recent first round picks, these guys are a little too fresh to throw completely into the fire. Tunsil is not playing like a dominating left tackle. Harris has flashed a little as a rookie, but it would have been nice to have a real monster show up in Miami, he didn't. The dominant tag cannot be placed on either of these players yet and the word bust would be premature, but the signs all point to nothing special...

Maxwell and Alonso, the big trade a couple years ago from Philly for our eighth pick and their thirteenth. Maxwell is gone. Alonso is marginal against the run and cannot cover anybody, meanwhile Tunsil is in question. Looking at the two teams from a personnel decision-making point of view, Philadelphia is rising like a rocket and Miami is plummeting like the Skylab.

Philly knew one thing, the NFL is completely predicated on quarterback play. There is no other barometer that comes close to determining how good an NFL team will be year in and year out than the player at that one position.

Philadelphia had traded for Sam Bradford and knew he was not the answer. They then gave up four draft picks including a first rounder to swap the first round pick they acquired from Miami to trade with Cleveland for the 2nd pick in the draft. They did this because they knew, without a great QB it didn't matter. They could draft a Parker, or a Pouncey, or a James, or a Tunsil, or a Harris, just keep naming them, and it wouldn't matter.

They had to draft a quarterback because Bradford was not the answer...

Like Ryan Tannehill, he was never going to be a great quarterback...

They knew, a team in the NFL without a great QB, really doesn't matter in the long run.

Miami can have fifty coaches, Miami can have fifty directors of personnel and fifty tackles and centers and wide receivers, it just doesn't matter. Teams will not win consistently in the NFL without a great QB. There is no other quantifiable way for a team to be great over the course of many seasons. A team can win now and then without a great QB, but never consistently.

The argument against this premise is myopic and really just plain denial.

Don Shula knew this emphatically, he drafted Dan Marino the year after going to the Super Bowl with David Woodley. Unfortunately, Miami never won the Super Bowl with Marino, but they certainly were in the hunt every year. They certainly were more exciting to watch than anything in Miami since. They always had a chance because of one player.

So what's the point of this article?

Miami must not sit back and think that losing Ryan Tannehill was the reason for this lost season.

Tannehill has never been great, never in six seasons. Carson Wentz, year two we see greatness, Jared Goff, year two we see potential. We knew it right away with Marino, Brady was leading his team the the Super Bowl by his second season. This is not rocket science. Even Drew Brees is no longer a viable excuse for thinking Tannehill will change his spots.

It is not about liking or not liking Tannehill, he's a nice guy and seems like he could be something, but that's the trap. Projecting after a certain number of seasons becomes a fool's game. The NFL is not a place to project a player at thirty years old. Isn't the injury to Tannehill's knee reason enough to understand that every year he becomes more vulnerable and it will only get worse.

Adam Gase has the potential to be a very good NFL coach but he will never attain that in Miami unless he's given the primary tool he needs for success. There's no magic. Belichick - Brady, Shula - Marino, Walsh - Montana, Lombardi - Starr, there's no magic.

Gase desperately needs his own quarterback. Not these inherited quarterbacks. He's confident to a fault and a good general manager and/or personnel director must save him from himself or lose him. Allow him to go out and find the guy he likes and find a way to make it happen. Just like Doug Pederson did in Philly. Pederson played for Shula, remember?

No one can project greatness at the QB position, many have tried and most have failed. If ever there was an imperfect science, this is it, but Gase knows what he wants. Miami knows what it has in Tannehill just like Philly knew what they had in Bradford. The difference is that Philly figured out Bradford was not going to be the guy before spending seven years trying.

Philly did not cut Bradford, but they did extraordinary things to make sure they got a guy they thought could be great. Miami does not need to cut Tannehill. They need to go find their future QB and do extraordinary things to make it happen.

Miami cannot continue to waste first round draft picks on tackles and centers and WRs when none of those players is ever going to make this team great. These players only compliment the one person who can make the Miami Dolphins great again, a quarterback.

This blog is a perfect example of what is happening in Miami. Here I sit writing these little soliloquies to myself because no one is listening or caring any longer.

The only way Miami can win back fans is by going out and finding a great quarterback for Coach Adam Gase. The tackles will suddenly look better, the center will suddenly be great again, the wide receiver will play like he wants to make a catch because they don't want to let that guy down.

It doesn't matter if Miami wins another game this season, it means nothing and therefore it is not worth the NFL's price of a middling draft pick. Yes, I'm saying Miami should lose every game the rest of this reason and set itself up to do the right thing.

Draft Adam Gase a quarterback, or lose him to a team that will when you fire him for not being able to make Tannehill into something he has never been.

It's time Miami... Go and get the player this city has been begging for since Dan Marino retired.

Then maybe, I can stop writing to myself...

The West Coast Comes to Miami

The West Coast Offense (WCO) is a name generally associated with legendary San Francisco coach Bill Walsh. The early roots of this offense were instilled by Marv Levy, then head coach at the University of California Berkeley and further developed in the vertical passing offense of Al Davis, a disciple of Sid Gillman, but took hold in 1968, when Walsh joined the staff of iconic coach Paul Brown with the AFL expansion Cincinnati Bengals. It was there that Walsh developed the philosophy now known as the "West Coast Offense.”

Interestingly enough, Brown is also the mentor of Don Shula and many of the innovators who pioneered the modern NFL passing game. Until this time and even in Shula’s early years with the Dolphins, the NFL was primarily a running league. Like the running game, the early passing game was a highly disciplined precision offense, practiced to perfection. The schemes and routes rehearsed until a system of timing developed that took advantage of a Quarterback’s footwork to release the ball in precise rhythm with cuts of a primary receiver.

The basic change in the WCO is not necessarily the actual plays; it is more the freedom given to the QB to exploit a defense by removing the rigid constraints encouraged by the Lombardi inspired running attack. Offenses were being defended by reading blocking patterns and sending more defenders to the point of attack on a run play or dropping into coverage when blocking schemes dictated a pass. The WCO was developed to exploit defensive adjustments by the extension of layers within the basic play.

In the WCO passing game, it is important that both the quarterback and the receivers be able to read the coverage of the defense. Unlike many passing plays that are designed for a primary receiver, the quarterback needs to be able to choose the receiver he is going to throw the ball to prior to the snap. The receivers need to be able to recognize the coverage, and make necessary adjustments to their routes, or even run entirely different routes. The WCO does not rely on a dominate receiver because any receiver can become the primary receiver based on the read at the line of scrimmage.

The much talked about receiver progression is not driven by the QBs ability to identify different targets in the course of a play, but by the design of the play moving defenders away from the intended target. A quick pass on a three-step drop, is followed by the same receiver running the same pattern, looking exactly the same but with the intention of exploiting the defender adjusting to that route while leaving a route behind him open.

The first fifteen to twenty plays are often scripted to see how the defense reacts to those plays in order to understand how that will affect the secondary and tertiary layers of the same play. That is what all those pictures fans see QBs and coaches look at on the sideline, not the actual play, but how the defense reacted to it. With the WCO offense, the same play is dynamic and designed to exploit a defense in motion, using the defense against itself in the course of a game.

The philosophical difference in Miami will come from a change to attacking from the offensive side of the ball verses the defensive side. Bill Parcells was a defensive coach, who believed football games were won the defensive side of the ball, with the offense responsible for scoring points, but most importantly, for ball control, and not giving away points. Tony Sparano, as a disciple of Parcells, followed the same philosophy and the Dolphins were built in that image.

The hiring of Dan Henning is a clear indication of this philosophy, because the Henning offense was a regimented run based offense that employed a dominate receiver in passing situations. It is easy to see why Brandon Marshall was acquired given these constraints. Sparano knew the philosophy was antiquated and tried to modernize it by dabbling with the Wildcat and then hiring Brian Daboll, but the structure initiated by Parcells and Henning could not evolve, especially in the presence of Brandon Marshall, though it did begin to take root.

Now, removing Marshall from the equation not only makes sense, but also is imperative to the evolution of the Miami offense. The teams now playing at the top of the league with the possible exception of the Giants… Green Bay, New Orleans, New England among others have abandoned the notion of defense winning championships, but a combination of both will always be necessary.

In Miami, there will not be an extreme change on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense will look more like the Marino era than any conception that has followed. This philosophy puts a premium on QB play, but is actually QB friendly due the use of layered plays. In a layered offense, plays are built from basic three step drops that grow from the quick out, slant and Hitch, to five-step drops and seven-step drops designed to give the receivers time to maneuver before the ball is thrown. This technique gives maximum separation between the receiver and defenders, whether running vertical routes or crosses.

It will take time, but it is apparent why many folks around the league think Ryan Tannehill may be further ahead of Moore or Garrard in many aspects of this offense. It is also clear why Tannehill was drafted. What is not clear is why Matt Flynn was left on the table, but Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman are much better judges of these two players than personnel folks less familiar with both.

Welcome to a new world in Miami where the West Coast Offense takes center stage!

Joe Philbin Could Win in Miami

After missing on the only viable experienced head coach, the Miami Dolphins have narrowed the search down to three candidates, Todd Bowles, the motivator; Mike McCoy, the coach who changed his offense to fit a QB or Joe Philbin, the coach who has a system. Comparing these three against some of the NFL's greatest coaches could be the key in making the proper selection. Three great coaches with distinctly different styles can shed some light on what to expect from these candidates, Vince Lombardi, Don Shula and Bill Walsh.

Vince Lombardi was the ultimate motivator. His ability to use inspirational language to get every ounce of talent out of his roster is likened to some of history’s great leaders. Some of the phrases Lombardi used are so iconic they have passed into the vernacular of American culture. “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. If it doesn't matter who wins or loses, then why do they keep score? It's not whether you get knocked down, it's whether you get up.” The list of these quotes goes on and he delivered these words like an orator on a stage, rousing his teams to unbeatable levels.

Vince Lombardi led the Packers to 5 NFL championships and 2 Super Bowls. His players would run through stonewalls after some of his impassioned speeches, but it wasn’t the game day inspiration that made Lombardi special, he was a man who lived by these credos everyday. By passing his astounding will to win on to his players, everyday, he was able to make them believe they were an unstoppable force and for a 10 year period in professional football, indeed they were.

Shula is the winningest coach in NFL history, he was able to mold teams from the collection of players he had on the roster. When he had a bruising back like Larry Csonka and a consummate game managing QB like Bob Griese, he molded a running attach that was unparalleled in the NFL. By adding one player, WR Paul Warfield, he was able to open up the deep passing game for an unstoppable mixture of talent. His offense beat teams down until they brought house and then Griese went over the top to Warfield. It was nearly impossible to defend that combination.

When Dan Marino fell in his lap, he transformed his offense into the most prolific passing attack ever seen at that time in the league. He used lightning quick WRs, coupled with pass catching TEs to take advantage of Marino’s amazingly quick release. Shula does not get the credit, but his offense ushered in the modern NFL passing game. He took his teams to an unprecedented 6 Super Bowls and 1 NFL championship. He was even able to do it with a two-headed QB named David Woodley and Don Strock. He may have only won two SBs but getting there with such an eclectic mixture of talent is a prime example of his amazing ability to adapt to the talent he had on the football team.

Bill Walsh was a man with a plan, he was the definitive system coach. He changed the NFL by creating the unique system now known as the West Coast Offense. Instead of molding talent or using motivational language, he created a system and then found players who fit. This approach was completely different from Shula or Lombardi, because by narrowing down the type of player he needed, he was able to find jewels where others saw blemishes.

Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick, Jerry Rice was from tiny Mississippi Valley State and no one except Walsh saw him as a 1st round draft pick. Walsh wasn’t looking to build a team around players, he was looking for players to fit his system. This approach motivated these players because others could not see what Walsh saw and by providing the opportunity, they rose to the highest levels. Walsh led the 49ers to 3 SB victories but his impact on the game reverberates through the NFL as many modern coaches use his system approach and West Coast Offense to build franchises to this day.

Three different men, with three distinctly different philosophies, all rose to the top of a profession that has washed out thousands of others who were not up to the task. While it is monumentally unfair to compare Todd Bowles, Mike McCoy or Joe Philbin to these great coaches, any search for a coach must include the criteria that made these men special. Is one of these three capable of being an exceptional motivator? Is one capable of adapting a team to the talents on his roster? Is one capable of creating a system and identifying the talent to make it work?

It is interesting that each of these 3 choices fits one of the philosophies, Bowles could be a Lombardi type coach, who motivates players; McCoy can adapt an offense to a player like Tim Tebow and Philbin is a West Coast system guy. The question is, is any one of them special, can any one be the next great coach Stephen Ross is looking for?

Looking at the Miami Dolphin Roster is decisive in answering this question. Can the Dolphins get to the next level by pure motivation, the answer is probably no. The reason is that motivation like Lombardi is built from the ground up. The message gets lost on players who were not brought up through a system that begins with hard work as the premise. Because of this, Todd Bowles should be eliminated from the equation.

Can the Dolphins get there by a coach adapting to the talent on the roster. The answer to this question lies in the players on the Dolphins. Adapting to talent means there is a special player to adapt a system around. Unfortunately Miami has no single Tim Tebow like player worthy of building a team round. Because of this, Mike McCoy should be eliminated.

Can the Dolphins be adapted to a system like the West Coast Offense and the answer is… Yes. Brian Daboll was able to take the Dolphin offense and use the players in a West Coast system to succeed in the final 9 games of the season. This means the team has the offensive players to fit the system. Joe Philbin intimately understands this system and has the greatest opportunity of success of the 3 men vying for the position.

By looking at the 3 men in the coaching search and using an historic approach of comparing them to 3 great coaches and then matching them to the Miami Dolphin roster, the choice of a coach becomes obvious. There is no telling whether the Dolphin brain trust would use such an approach and without being in the interview room, there is no way of knowing the whether any of these men are worthy, but by using the available data, Joe Philbin rises to the top of the equation.

The Miami Dolphins will select a coach soon and the choice here is Joe Philbin.