Sorry Mel - The Miami Dolphins Stole this Draft

The pundits are unhappy the Miami Dolphins did not sell their collective souls to draft a quarterback… Mel Kiper, an admitted Ravens fan, praised his team for selling out to pick QB Lamar Jackson with the 32nd pick. He then panned the Dolphins for not drafting a QB and gave them the worst draft grade of any team.

Mel was asked which player he liked before the draft, his answer – “It's so tough to answer because I have to think about team needs, how each prospect fits into those needs and realistic draft positions.”

Funny how when “their” team is on the clock, even the “experts” forget their own words. Kiper famously said, “Lamar Jackson had a lot of "layups" in Louisville's offense,” when comparing Jackson to Josh Allen. He didn’t think Lamar Jackson would develop into an NFL QB. That was before the Ravens drafted the Louisville Heisman Trophy winner and now, Mel has nothing but praise for Ozzie Newsome.

QB's running around on NFL fields is not the recipe for long and fruitful careers.

The examples are plentiful, but the prefect one is RG3. Jackson is so close in stature to RG3 that it’s scary. Most NFL GMs put on their psychology hat and remembered, “Past performance is the best predictor of future success.” Jackson lasted until 32 for that reason. Miami, along with 30 other teams were not going to risk making the same mistake.

The bottom line is, Miami fans do not care what Mel Kiper, ProFootballFocus or whomever have to say about the Miami Dolphin draft. These fans have grown numb to easy pot-shots from outsiders that don’t have to play New England twice a year.

Miami fans are a resilient and self-sufficient bunch that actually understand what Mel meant with, “think about team needs, how each prospect fits into those needs and realistic draft positions.”

Building up to the draft, this writer penned several articles detailing the issues that led to the Miami Dolphin's 6-10 season. The most annoying line that seems to have become an off-hand fact is that suddenly, Ryan Tannehill is an injury prone QB.

Tannehill and the Dolphins are guilty of thinking experimental science (stem cell therapy) is magic.

It’s not…

Guilty as charged, but injury prone? Tannehill was an ironman prior to a cheap Calais Campbell knee shot. The stem cell experiment didn’t work and Tannehill subsequently had the same surgery nearly every player wearing an NFL uniform has had at one time or another. Tom Brady’s been wearing that brace since the last time Miami won the AFC East.

If past performance is the best predictor of future success, Tannehill will be fine.

Whether Mel Kiper likes Ryan Tannehill is a completely different issue, many Miami fans will agree with that sentiment. Using the term “injury prone” is a ridiculous cop out, if you don’t like Tannehill just say it Mel, you won’t hurt our feelings.

The men whose jobs are on the line - Adam Gase, Mike Tannenbaum and Chris Grier have the belief that Ryan Tannehill will continue where he left off prior to his knee injury. The Dolphins felt they had too many holes they needed to fill and could not afford to essentially give up their whole draft for an unknown rookie QB.

The Dolphins were perfectly willing to allow one of the top four QBs to fall to the 11th pick. The Arizona Cardinals sent the No. 15 pick, a 3rd-round pick (No. 79) and a fifth-round selection (No. 152) to the Oakland Raiders to jump ahead of Miami and take Josh Rosen. Carson Palmer was 38 years old and retired from the Cardinals who were left with Sam Bradford - Now you’re talking injury prone.

No matter what the pundits believe, the Cardinals were desperate for a QB and the Dolphins were not. It’s as simple as that.

In two previous articles:

http://www.dolphinshout.com/2018/01/miami-dolphins-are-playing-wrong-defense.html

http://www.dolphinshout.com/2018/01/the-miami-dolphins-need-beast-at-tight.html

The real issues that led to Miami’s demise, aside from Jay Cutler being Jay Cutler, were evident by the end of the 2017 season.

The Dolphins allowed 94 catches by tight ends, the most in the league. Only Oakland allowed more tight end receiving yards (1034 to 1038) than Miami. Tight ends scored 10 touchdowns against the Dolphins, tied with Cleveland for second-most and behind only the Giants (13).

The league is evolving and Miami was not: The Patriots had 221 snaps in Dime (6-DB) Personnel and an astounding 161 snaps in Prevent (7-DB). Miami had SEVEN total snaps in a Dime defense. The Patriots faced 3rd & 10 or more on 54 snaps this year and yet they played 6 or more DBs on 382 snaps.

The Miami Dolphins used the Dime package only 7 times…

It’s humorous to hear the talking heads berate the Miami Dolphins for picking Minkah Fitzpatrick in the first round. Maybe lining up only 7 times in a dime package is a tiny clue to what Miami REALLY needed.

It’s also humorous to hear how Fitzpatrick will displace T.J. McDonald in the defensive backfield. Stats are for losers, but 7 times versus NE’s 161 times and a total of 382 snaps with 6 or more DBs.

T.J. and Minkah will be playing alongside one another a whole lot in 2018.

NFL teams are not “supposed” to draft for needs but one thing is very clear, Fitzpatrick was a much greater need than drafting Tannehill’s future replacement.

The Miami Dolphins literally had no starting TE prior to the draft. Julius Thomas caught 4 TD passes for Miami and that’s it. The Eagles? 14… The Patriots, 10. Of the TEs with the most TD receptions, 4 of the top 5 were on playoff teams and 2 were in the Super Bowl.

The Dolphins cut Julius Thomas and Anthony Fasano retired… Miami threw out the old axiom of not going into the draft with a need so the team could select the “best player available.”

What were they going to do, hide it? Tight Ends haven’t existed in Miami since long before Mad Dog opened the pearly gates.

The pundits are still stomping for Mason Rudolph but the sight of Mike Gesicki in Dolphin teal warms the heart of any true Miami fan.

The Dolphins did not only draft exactly what they needed, but they actually followed the Jimmy Johnson credo and doubled down! They selected coverage LB Jerome Baker in the 3rd round and the Kelly green hulk TE Durham Smythe in the 4th round. (Hey Paul, any relation?)

Kalen Ballage in the 4th as the bruising RB to spell Kenyan Drake. They added CB Cornell Armstrong and LB Quentin Poling in the 6th, along with a kicker, Jason Sanders in the 7th.

Mel Kiper can grade Miami wherever he likes…

At the beginning of the day, this Miami fan is smiling.

At the end of the day, Mel Kiper can explain trading away Jarome Baker and Durham Smythe for Lamar Jackson to sit on the bench for a few years.

Hey he’s the expert after all…

Miami Dolphins To Trade, Stay, or Trade ?

""ITTT'S TIMEEE"" (Thank You Bruce Buffer).

The 2018 NFL Draft has arrived when on Thursday April 26 at 8pm Est the Cleveland Browns will officially be "On The Clock".

According to the Draft Trade Value Chart which illustrates the pre-draft points worth of every selection in the draft.

The Miami Dolphins presently scheduled picks induvidual worth,
and combined grand total are as is.

Round 1
Pick 11 = 1250 points

Round 2
Pick 42 = 480

Round 3
Pick 73 = 225

Round 4
Pick 123 = 49
Pick 131 = 41

Round 6
Pick 209 = 7.4

Round 7
Pick 227 = 1
Pick 229 = 1
--------------------------
Total Worth = 2054.4
Draft Trade Value Points

If Chance had it's way?
For one single, particular, potential Franchise Quarterback of the future.
The Dolphins could consider trading away their entire draft, or at least the most part of their 8 presently scheduled (2018) selections.

Everybody knows that there are FOUR Highly Touted QB's projected to be picked between picks one, and twelve!
(If not within the first 5 to 6 picks)?

Everybody knows that Cleveland will take one of these QB's with most likely pick #1, for sure #4 if RB Barkley goes first!

#2 NYG ? Would love Barkley, or perhaps Eli's protege?

The World knows that the NYJets didn't move up into the top 3 for anything other than a QB!!

The Galaxies know the names of these four premiere Quarterbacks are (in no particular order), Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and ((( Baker Mayfield )))!! PS, according to Todd McShay. None of this year's QB's have a higher pre-draft grade than our own 2018 starter Ryan Tannehill!!

So Miami's total (2018) draft worth equates to 2054.4 points!

The Dolphins can not get to
#1 Cleveland = 3000
#2 NY Giants = 2600
or
#3 NY Jets = 2200
(Bad Business For Both Anyways).

Miami Not being able to work a deal for picks 1 or 2 is factored in via only (2018) picks while excluding the very real possibility of getting there with an offering of #11, and 2019's first round selection. Miami's 2019 first round pick could be worth anywhere between pick #32's 590, or the 3000 point first overall pick. By giving it up (along with #11's 1250). In this case, it would count as 1750 points which equates to a top four to five pick in 2019.

Somewhat of a steal for the Dolphins. If they were to do the usual and finish Mid-pack or better. Basically, (if Miami were to finish in the bottom five)? It would breakdown to our 2019 top five pick (while throwing in this years #11 plus whatever) for one of 2018's top two picks. It would have to be The NYG at #2. But lets not give that too much hype as it would pretty much decimate Miami's 2018, and 2019 draft options. No-Way does Cleveland trade #1!
But if they get their QB at one? They may consider trading #4 (If RB Barkley is gone)?

#4 Cleveland = 1800
(which would require everything other than our 3rd round pick in 2018.)

#5 Denver landed QB Case Keenum in FA for two years and may be interested in a future franchise QB. Shot-Caller John Elway suggest that Keenum was their man all along, and that they are open to potentially trading pick #5.
(Which is worth 1700 points).

Do the math with Denver and Miami can get to #5 for picks #11 & 42, and keep the rest. Bronco's could offer their 30 point fifth round pick #149 for an exact point value trade.

#6 Indy says that they are taking calls on this pick worth 1600 points.(According to the Draft Trade Value Chart). It is feesible that The Dolphins could get to this Colts selection with an exchange of (Miami's #11 & 42 worth 1730) for (Indy's first round pick #6, forth round #104, & fifth round #140 total of  1721.5). But to trade down. The Colts would likely be looking to gather more picks, not spend them. If thats the route they choose? Our entire draft other than our second round pick comes within 25 of the total point value cost for pick #6.

#11 Miami (#'s 42, 73, 123, 131 plus)
#12 Buffalo (#'s 22, 53, 56, 65 plus)
#15 Arizona ( #'s 47, 79 plus)
#16 Baltimore (#'s 52, 83 plus)
#17 LA Chargers (#'s 48, 84 plus)
#23 New England (#'s 31, 43, 63 plus)

Potentially.
All are bidding for picks 4 - 6 and their QB dreams of the future. Obviously a couple teams can easily afford to get #1 if it were on the market, while also having more than enough leverage to overpay (the goin rate) for picks 4, 5, 6, & all the way to pick #10, (if so be it).

All the potential tradeup/down deals have already been discussed between suggested franchises, the ground work has been laid out. So and so, will give so and so, so and so, if so and so is available at so and so number pick.
If so, sign-ze-papel.

Otherwise.
They will all be hoping that their Head Coaches one and only Quarterback of four falls to where they presently pick.

If it were this fans choice. The Bills and/or Pats don't leap-frog Miami for any picks between #'s 2 - 10. And.
The Miami Dolphins at pick 11select Baker Mayfield. Otherwise. Gotta get to at least pick 5, or 6. (If he is still there)? No Bro-Mance from this guy for Darnold, Rosen, or Josh Allen. Adam Gase may see things differently? JAllen if any of the four other than Mayfield, but personally it's Baker, Lamar Jackson, then Josh Allen at QB for me. Meanwhile, due to a few ill-advised words while in the spotlight, and with questions of his commitment and/or ""love"" for the game coming about. Rosen may be the one who drastically falls, and who knows. Maybe he is the ""Right One"" in the eyes of Adam Gase?

Gase has suggested.
""Sure I'd like to grab a QB, but it's gotta be the (Right One)""!!

I wouldn't put it past the Dolphin fan teasing football gods to have the ""Right One"" QB available at pick 10 when Oakland goes on the clock. And at that moment Buffalo at 12 jumps Miami at 11 with a deal that the Raiders God Father Gruden can't refuse.

Alright, so it's obvious that for me The Miami Dolphins first pick somehow, someway ends up being a guy that will be recognized by just the mention of his first name, Baker. (Or the QB that Adam Gase see's as the ""Right One""!

11A QB Baker
11B LB Tremaine Edmunds
11C LB Roquon Smith
11D DT Vita Vea
11E S/DB Minkah Fitzpatrick/Derwin James (a choice of one of these two pushes S TJ McDonald to OLB on approximately 75% of defensive plays).
Perhaps the Dolphins believe that they can get two birds with one stone in such a selection?

Should the ""Right One"" of the top 4 QB's leap through the Dolphins slippery fins?

Then Edmunds, Smith, Vea, and Fitzpatrick or the likes of (for good measure) become the obvious targets.

11B & C Edmunds and Smith may require trading up to picks 7 - 10. If the brass so desires? The Bucs Pick 7 can be had for #11 along with one 3rd & 4th round pick.

Da'Bears #8 and 4th round #105 is gettable via Miami's #11 & 3rd round pick #73.

The Whinners #9 can be had for the Dolphins #11, and two 4th round selections.

The Raiders Pick 10 can be had for #11 and a 4th. (All according to the Draft Trade Value Chart) which will be included via this threads first comment.


11D Vita Vea is the most assured prospect of Dolphin positional priority to most likely be available at #11. He is by far the best DT in this draft, and would easily be a top ten pick if not for the abundance and need of top ten QB's. He could very well be the second coming of Ndamukong Suh? He requires double teams on every play and with ten years of youth on his side can be had for 25 million fewer dollars yearly than was Suh. With Suh's dead money. The Dolphins are still highly invested financially at the position of DT. With the selection of a Vita Vea, Miami will at least get some value/production for the dollars being given to one no longer on the roster. Vea would start on opening day alongside Miami's current #1 DT Jordan Phillips who is scheduled to be a 2019 FA.

S/DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (or the likes of/Derwin James) most likely come into play only if 11A, B, C, & D are gone at 11.

Or, If Miami were to trade down from 11 to where if any of the above were to fall could possibly become Pick 15 - 20 A.

15 - 20 (two options per)
B. QB Lamar Jackson
C. TE Mike Giseki
D. LB Leighton Vander-Esch
E. LB Rashaan Evans
F. DE Marcus Davenport
G. TE Dallas Goedert
H. G/T/C Isiah Wynn
I.  T Mike McGlinchey   
J. C/G Billy Price
K. LB Uchenna Nwosu

For instance;
For pick #15.
The Dolphins could potentially trade down for Arizona's pick, and gain a 3rd round pick #79 overall. (Though for Arizona to do so, they'd probably be targeting QB Lamar Jackson)!

Or

For pick #20
Miami can move down to Detroits selection, and acquire an additional 2nd round pick #51 overall.

Obviously
Picks #16 - 19 will also bring a similar additional high draft pick south.

And The Miami Dolphins can still land someone of the highest rated prospects placed between picks 11E & 15 - 20 K!

This fan badly wants Baker, Tremaine, Roquon, or Vita Vea, and think that if Miami gets stuck at #11.

Vita Vea is the most likely to be there!
If all are gone?
QB Lamar Jackson was my favorite way back when (2 years) before discovering Mayfield, and would be my choice at 11. Baker & Lamar are the only QB's in this class that have already displayed a serious ""IT"" about them!!


Just one fans calculations, and Ive been wrong before.

Actually just once.
And that was a case when I thought I was wrong but I was actually right.

OMG, Honey don't get mad, I was just kidd'n. Alright, alright, but on the way home can you grab some pastries from that guy with the funny hat.

OPPPS, GOTTA GO !!!

GOFINS!!!

What do you folks think?

And with the Miami Dolphins pick #? they select?