Incredible Proof That Ryan Mallett Will Be The Real Deal For The Miami Dolphins

So you all know that I am a huge Ryan Mallett supporter. I believe he can lead the Miami Dolphins to a Super Bowl if they would just take a chance on him.

I urge any of you guys who think the same way that I do to write letters to Tony Sparano, Jeff Ireland, or Stephen Ross. They need to know that we want them to take Mallett, and a letter is a good way to tell them.

Anyway, I wanted to show you guys this incredible argument that I found in a Sun Sentinel blog post written by Mike Berardino. Mike didn't actually write it, though. It was written by a Joe W. Here is the segment written by Joe, and I encourage you guys to go to the actual post that I have linked in this paragraph to support Joe.

"I did a little QB research project today that I thought I'd share. Here’s what I did:

1.) I took the top 10 NFL QB's for each year for the past 5 years (2010-2006) based on QB Rating.

2.) I then determined which players appeared in the top 10 the most times. There were 8 QB's that showed up 3 or more times in the past 5 years that are still playing football (Kurt Warner retired).

3.) I then went back and researched what their final 2 years of college stats were.

4.) I compared those stats to the current 2011 college crop of QB prospects to try and get an idea of what prospects compare favorably, i.e. what guys have the best chance of being the future greats of the NFL based on their last 2 years of college production.

Results: The 8 QB's that have been in the Top 10 the most for the past 5 years averaged the following in their final 2 years of college: Comp: 64.5% Yards: 6,513 Y/A: 8.00 yards per attempt TD's: 50 total TD's the final 2 years of college TD/Int Ratio of 2.47.

There was one player that came close to all these averages: Andy Dalton: 64%, 5600 yds, 50 TD's 3.57 TD/Int ratio. He's also started the most games out of all the QB's (49), which I believe has also been proven to be correlated to NFL success.

The only other guy that compares favorably is Ryan Mallett (7500 yds, 62 TD's, 3.26 TD/Int ratio), but his completion % (60.3%) was lower than the average.

However, when looking at the Top 8 QB's the ones that had the lower completion % in the final 2 years of college, Peyton Manning (62%), Drew Brees (61%), also had the top total TD's, 57 and 51 respectively. Guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo had high completion % (66%, 65%, respectively) and total TD's (59 TD, 55 TD, respectively), but they also didn't play in a major Division 1 conference like Manning/Brees and the others.

When looking at Mallett's JR/SR stats compared to the other top 8 NFL QB's three things stand out:

1.) His 62 total TD's the past 2 years in college are better than any of the Top 8 QB's. The most JR/SR total TD’s belonged to Big Ben (59 TD's), but again, he didn't play in a big time conference. The number two player was Peyton Manning with 57. And since he played in the SEC, the production of Mallett is all the more impressive.

2.) Mallett's 9.21 YPA number is greater than any of the Top 8 NFL QB's. This again reinforces what I saw on film that Mallett is prone to push the ball downfield and create big plays vs. the standard dink and dunk. However, he's admitted that mentality is what caused his poor JR completion numbers (56%) and he focused on that in his senior year. That focus helped his completion jump to 65% while his Yards per Attempt also increased from 9.0 to 9.4. Again, impressive.

3.) Mallett's 7500 passing yds were only exceeded by Big Ben (7725) and Drew Brees (7577), but since Big Ben played in the MAC his production gets discounted a bit.

So, in summary on Mallett, in his final 2 years of college he threw for more TD's, more yards and had a higher yards per attempt than any of the top 10 QB's currently playing in the NFL. I’d say that's about as favorable comparison as you're going to get. It's equally impressive that he produced these numbers in the SEC, the toughest conference in college football, and not some lesser conference (TCU-Mountain West Conference), which is what you generally find with many other college QB's who have put up gaudy stats.

One final note, if Cam Newton played 2 years he might have been at the beginning of this report. His 66% completion %, 30 TD's, 10.2 yards per attempt and 4.3 TD/Int ratio were all close to the top of the 2010 stats. However, the question will always be if he was a one year wonder or could have sustained this level of play for another year.

P.S. – For all the talk of mobility and 40 times with QB's, in 2010 Cam Newton was sacked 23 times and Mallett, all 5.4 in the 40, was only sacked 25 times against the same competition."

Once again, I didn't write the above work. That was all credit to Joe W. Here is a link to the post again. I encourage you guys to go and read it:
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_seasonticket/2011/03/joe-w-and-the-case-for-drafting-ryan-mallett-for-the-miami-dolphins.html/comment-page-1#comment-219053

And, if by chance you ever read this Joe, please email me at paul@dolphinshout.com. I would love for you to be a writer for Dolphin Shout.

Now, let me know what you guys think. Does this make you think any better about Mallett?

Thanks for reading.

Comments (21)

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Good find Paul. Certainly backs up the praise we've heard about Mallett. I like Mallett from the on-field performance perspective. What scares me (and likely some GMs) is the off the field stuff with him. I hope it's not true for him, but I keep thinking he could be a Ryan Leaf type. Do I think he's worth taking a chance on? Absolutely, especially if the Dolphins can trade back (say the 22-26 area) and pick up a 2nd round pick and still take him. We'll see soon enough!
thta has no comparison at all because some of those players are prolly not play or not starting = jamarcuss Russell,VY. no offense but this kinda stuff is irrelevant. because u can have alll those stats in college but in the NFL its completely different
I'm with you Jordan. At one time i thought Mallett was going to be the real deal, and now I'm not so sure. I really don't know much about the guy. I know he can't move in the pocket I don't know if that means he is not aware in the pocket or he just can't get out of the way even when he knows someone is baring down on him. He is a pocket passer and I like that, but he still has to be able to make the first guy miss, every skill position in the NFL must be able to do that.

Jordan brings something up that I think gets forgotten at times. The difference between the Pros and College football is greater than any other sport. The NFL has the best players in the world playing in the NFL. Their isn't a European league like Basketball has, Their isn't another Pro Baseball league like in Japan. Hockey has a number of Pro leagues around the world. But Football is different the best of the best all play in the NFL and the step up from College ball to the Pros is like night and day.

Ryan Mallett may have played against 1 or 2 really good defensive players a game. In the NFL all the players are as good or better than the best players he has ever seen at the College level. You just never know, but I will say this of the leading QB prospects out there Ryan Mallett is the most ready along with the best arm of any of QB coming into the league. That includes Newton and Gabbert. If he is there at 15 Miami IMO is going to have to take him.

Related to what Jordan said above take a look at this.

1. comp: 61.35% YARDS 7206 Y/A 7.55 per pass TDs 71 TD/INT ratio of 3.08

2.comp: 66.9% YARDS 7594 Y/A 8.25 per pass TDs 59 TD/INT ratio of 2.80

In order their names were ANDRE WARE AND JOHN BECK.

Interesting isn't it !!!!
i feel you riverdog but i dont think we shulad take mallet hes slow we need some one that if the pocket collapses he can make somthin happen on his feet the system we run here in miami is called for a duel threat QB such as newton or vy im not sayin this kid is a bust but hes not fit for this team. i say we do this draft mark ingram since this team is gonna be a run first team to begin with not to mention kory sheets and hilliard have potential but mark ingram wuld vastly improve that run game if we sign D.will to team up with ingram when cba gets done that can be two back system with speed nd power maybe even three back system with hilliard like they did in Wisconsin. sign a veteran o trade for vy witch i think he wuld fit well down here look at marshall hes stayed out of trouble so i think VY can too. and wait for next years QB class that can be better than this years QB class grab a reciever nd oline help after round one when we take one of the best players in the draft-Mark Ingram.
Look! NCAA stats LOOK great and granted thats all we (Fans, Coaches, Scous etc..) have to go by, but those numbers do NOT correlate to NFL success!!! Particularly the QB, great example someone mentioned Ryan Leaf, what bout Russel, White etc.. the list goes on
No one has mentioned Colin Kaepernick outta Nevada, 6"4/ 233 lbs./ 4.53-40/ Great arm, very mobile, good work ethics & character, most impressive during the combine...
2 replies · active 733 weeks ago
Kaepernick reminds me of a white White and if a black White can't make it in the NFL, I don't see why a white White would.
Lol! Hell of a point.
He's been mentioned just not on this thread. It's funny how many of the same type and style QBs the College ranks are turning out. These guys are coming out of spread offenses and they are being used as the main weapon in their respective offenses. Those guys are great for the College ranks but just don't fit in a pro style passing attack with the emphases on passing.

No one knows if they can read defenses pre snap or while on the move. That is one of Henne's problems. Judging by his progress it's not an easy thing to learn, after 3 years I would think he would be catching on to what is happening but it doesn't look that way.
This is some really good and interesting analysis. However there is one factor that it doesnt take into account and that is the difference in offensive philosophies that each young QB plays under. I remember the Chris Redman stories out of college when he was racking up great numbers against pretty good teams. The same can be said of the Petrino offense....it is a pass first offense that is extremely well designed to scheme against defenses. While it can take a good QB like Mallette and show him to his best advantage, it can also skew the numbers that were used in the analysis. unfortunately for us this isnt baseball and stats cant be used conclusively to gauge the intellect and competitive nature of a QB prospect. We are just going to have to roll the dice and see what happens. For every Leaf there is a Brady or Rothlisberger. Also remember Marino had some off the field and work ethic questions when he came out of college as well, and look what happened!!! In my heart I dont think the Fins will pick a QB in the first round. I see them going for offensive line depth or the "best player available regardless of position" I think we will ride with Chad Henne again this year, and for one I dont think that is all bad......
Coach Petrino made it known that Ryan Mallett was one of the hardest working players her has ever coached. Arkansas team mates like TE Williams said he was a stand up guy. To me, I believe we have to take what the ones closes to Mallett say to be accurate. Paul I have been with you the whole way with Mallett. I agree he will be the next Marino for Miami. I watched every game Mallett played the last two years and I will say Miami can't go wrong if they take Mallett. River, you always seem to be on top of things and I agree with you a lot, but think about how well Marino moved in the pocket. His strong arm and quick release saved him. Also, I liked the stat that showed 23 sacks newton 25 sacks Mallett against the same competition. Thanks Paul.
2 replies · active less than 1 minute ago
I appreciate you reading and commenting. It is good to know that there are people that agree with me out there.

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I saw that about the sacks. I have to say this. I like Mallett over Newton, Gabbert, and Kap. The problem I have with all of them is none of them IMO are worthy of a 1st round pick. If Mallet is behind them as most of the draft Guru's think, where does that put Mallett ?

I must say this because it dominates the way I view the draft. If Miami or any pro team drafts a player in the first round I expect that player to start the season as a starter. In the draft position Miami is in and with the holes that need filling Miami has 2 glaring needs. Running back which can be partially solved with resigning R or R, replacing them with any of the FAs that will some day come free, or finding a guy in the draft. I don't see it being Ingram because of his lack of speed. The other need is for a inside Olineman, and there are plenty of them from the 15 spot on down. Also there will be one of the better WR available at the 15 spot. Wouldn't it be nice to have Julius Jones, or AJ Green in a Dolphin uniform ?
Coach Petrino made it known that Ryan Mallett was one of the hardest working players her has ever coached. Arkansas team mates like TE Williams said he was a stand up guy. To me, I believe we have to take what the ones closes to Mallett say to be accurate. Paul I have been with you the whole way with Mallett. I agree he will be the next Marino for Miami. I watched every game Mallett played the last two years and I will say Miami can't go wrong if they take Mallett. River, you always seem to be on top of things and I agree with you a lot, but think about how well Marino moved in the pocket. His strong arm and quick release saved him. Also, I liked the stat that showed 23 sacks newton 25 sacks Mallett against the same competition. Thanks Paul.
Mallet is all hype. A couple issues for Mallet proponents.
1. I have never seen him perform well on the big stage. Liberty Bowl 2010 against East Carolina. Scraped out a wind only because Carolina kicker missed (4) FIELD GOALS. A pedestrian 17/28 WITH 2TDS AND 1 int. 9/25/10- Alabama at Arkansas. 1 TD, 3 Int's in a loss at home. 10/16 @ Auburn knocked out first half in a big loss. 1/4/11 Sugar Bowl Mallet went 24/47 for 277 2 TD and (1) Int in a loss on the big stage. Where is the greatness here.
2. Someone please explain how Mallets Press interview at the combine translates to success in the NFL. This is the guy we want leading our team. I saw a guy who had character issues and presented a terrible image. In fact one of the worst QB interviews I've ever seen at a combine. Ok so the guy can throw the ball 80 yards. So could Russell. That worked out pretty well. Not who I want leading my team.
I am still waiting to see if we trade down. If we are at 15 and Mallett is there, yes take him. Tired of seeing FA qbs come to Miami and fail. Time to draft a qb in the first round. If we trade down and "if" Mallett is there definitely take him. No more second round qb experiments
If we want a runner then draft a RB. Pat White was that and could not cut it. Mallett is good and solid, like Dan was coming out of Pitt. I have been a Kaepernick fan from the beginning and if Mallett is gone at 15, then trade down and draft K in the second round and go for a beast G in the first. Foot speed is great and Dan wasn't fast by any means but he could make the first guy miss.
College to the NFL no comparasson. Even if Mallet was selected it takes 2 to 3 years to develop into a good QB in the NFL.. Just look at Hennie after 2 years he has not progressed a bit. Miami has to win now. Go with a free agent from the NFL to win now. VINCE YOUNG would be a great fit for Miami. Miami needs a scrambling QB not a pocket passer. To win in this league you have to have a QB who can scramble when the play breaks down. Just take a look at ROGERS from the Packers. So Miami should definitely pass on Malett if given the chance for a selection period.
Young might work out! However, MIGHT! is the key word here... He has the tools to be a good NFL QB but toooo many issues. Yeah! I'd take a chance, sign him to a 1-2 yr contract w/heavy incentive bonuses...
David McCauley's avatar

David McCauley · 727 weeks ago

IF, and that in my opinion is a big IF, Ryan Mallett is still available for you at pick 15, you had better take him. I've watched every game of his for the past two years, and he is the real deal. The fans love him....the coaches love him ... and his teammates love him.....these are the ones who know him the best. Go watch the Georgia game if you think he can't win one in the 4th quarter....and watch him against S. Carolina or LSU. His AVERAGE quarterback rating for the past TWO years is better than Blaine Gabbert's best game of 2010. He goes through his progressions very rapidly...and if there is a receiver halfway open, he gets rid of the ball quickly and accurately. His BAD games that everyone talks about...Alabama..who was number 1 at the time.....he throws for 325....not bad for a bad game against a great defense. Against another great defensive team, Ohio State, he has his other BAD game....he was pressured the whole game and would have still thrown for over 400 yards if it hadn't been for 7 dropped passes (which he has never said a word about). The only thing his detractors remember is the ONE interception at the end of the game when there was less than a minute to go.....no timeouts.....2nd and ten....he gets blitzed....he is not outside the pocket....can't throw it away....can't afford to be sacked...and in a split second throws the ball (which would have been completed) and doesn't see the defensive tackle drop back and it was intercepted. Go watch the highlights....he brought the team back from a huge first half deficit. If you watched him in the interview with Jon Gruden, you will see that Gruden was very impressed with how Mallett diagrammed the play on the chalkboard. When he asked Cam Newton for some football verbage from Auburn, Cam looked like a deer caught in the headlights. Uh.....uh....we had a simple system...I looked over to the sidelines and if they had 36 written on the board, then I ran that play. "Awesome", Gruden said. Mallett's at least 3 years ahead of Newton or Gabbert in understanding NFL type football. And for the person who said Petrino runs a pass first type offense.....why don't you go check and see who had the leading rusher in the SEC last year? I promise you that the Miami Dolphins and fans will be very happy if they are LUCKY enough to get Mallett.

RazorbackDave
1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
Thank you for the insight. Let's hope Miami agrees with you.

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